$25/$50 Hand Analysis: OtB_RedBaron vs Daniel 'Jungleman' Cates
Posted by Juan Pastor
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I know some people will hate me for analyze ONE hand in 45 min, but I just couldn't stop talking about it heh, sorry! I'll play a lot of hands in my next vid, love you <3.
It's likeable if you are passionate about it that much! If I hate something, it's your microphone, did you borrow that from Di Dang?
Hahah, sorry about that I’ll buy a new one!
I don’t quite get why hands like 78s, 76s are 100% call facing 5x raise for ip. Binking 5 outs on turn is obviously a good wish. But sometimes a flush out is tainted. Considering how often all the money goes in on the turn, I would think calling with 78, 67 on flop would be a close decision. Plz clarify, thx.
Hi Jeju,
Midpairs in this kind of spots are usually calling almost 100% because they have very good implied odds, its much better calling 7x than JJ for example, because it is like the same hand but with extra outs (in this example 88 and 99 are 100% fold). When the flush comes is not a big problem because we are still staking AA/KK/AQ very frequent with our 2p+. 78s has like 45%eq against the OOP range and he has to put 22.4bbs for a 74.5bbs pot (30%). Folding a 7 would be a big mistake.
very nice video ty
keep talking as much as you want , but buy a new microphone quickly !
Thank you!
I already have a new mic :D
Thanks for efforts mate.
Nothing personal in what Im going to say but my point is I think this video can be barely classified as "elite" level.
I havent watched any of your other videos and dont insist you`re necessarily a bad video producer, I just saw an interesting topic from unknown (for me) coach and thought I could have learned smth new and I have an issue with how this video was made (structured).
In a first part of a video you express your own thoughts on all actions in the hand which is ok when youre a better player but it seems its not the case since we discuss a hand between two great regs who used to play a lot against each other. Thus considering they have some dynamics youre unaware of I think its fair to say its quite irrelevant what you think discussing this hand "in vacuum".
In second part you plug std PIO sim for this spot.
Ok, we figured OOP should have 2 sizings otf, should check few hands and C/R-ing KT+fd isnt part of solid strat in vacuum but once again those guys dont play in vacuum.
And when Wookies still C/R KT were getting a solid clue he most likely isnt trying to follow std strat so from this point going deeper into this PIO sim makes zero sense. But even if it is you still havent shown how much OTB deviated from optimal strat when you given him just one flop option - smallish flop sizing he actually used. I mean its quite likely his smallish sizing is part of multi-sized flop strategy but we would never know now.....
My point is there is a lot of such videos lately and I think we should change something bc such videos don`t reach the actual goal of the whole thing - to educate people who watch these video. More so often they are misleading, read - people pay money to become worse.
Maybe its an issue with specific format and going deeper into one hand reqiures more efforts compared to cursory HH or deep run review.
I think we should make requirements tighter or change the structure of videos rating system.
Obviously there are great ELITE video producers like Krab, T.Forrester, Sauce (maybe some other guys); guys who often do very good videos - Apotheosis, Sam Greenwood, D.Dvoress (and some others Im sure I forgot) but besides them we have a lot of coaches and not so much quality content. I liked very much Eliaz Gutuerrez stylish videos and whilst we can argue how much educational value these videos contain but at least theyre quite unique, vell made and entertaining.
So maybe RIO should introduce more fomats and/or assign these "deep dive" type videos to best coaches only but as it is now system isn`t balanced and probably exploits customers and good coaches who are still motivated to make good videos.
Hope Phil will take it into consideration.
Maybe in today realities it becomes less relevant but then Phil should make a respective statement.
Once again - nothing personal Juan.
Hi S.M.S, thank you for your feedback.
Its true they might have some dynamics, but in this particular hand I expect both players to go quite close to optimal and I wasn't expecting Jungleman to be exploiting OTB in this spot (maybe I was wrong). That's why I decide to analyze the hand, even without knowing their dynamics and being a worse player than them.
About the IP sizing OTF you are right, I didn't give him more sizings, and I didn't because in this spots solvers tends to bet small almost every time, and knowing OTB, I thought he was going to use only this sizing, but I should mentioned it (I run the sim again and it bets 48% small and 5% 2/3 pot).
I understand what you are saying. I'm tired from the 3zoom vids, which are much easier to make, and that's why I tried this new format, even knowing some people would hate it.
Definitely my videos are not as good as Sauce's videos for obvius reasons, but I also don't think my content is making people becoming worse.
I'm really sorry that the video has not reached your expectations, I'll try it better next time :)
Hey Juan,
i disagree with S.M.S almost on everything...specially when he starts his post like "this can be classified barely as an elite content" (at least slightly disrespectful)
Although i always find differences on how ranges are built (not on this one) or betting patterns on a lot of the Pio sims on the site and that i do think many of the plays here may not be a big mistake but a deviation (maybe nodelocking more combos on oop turn bet JdJx becomes less of a "mistake"), i found this video really insightful.
This kind of videos are much more useful than those 3 tabling zoom vids where you can only find an interesting spot every four or five series.
Haters are gonna hate...on one of Tyler Forrester's videos(railbirding 50/100) one of the posters asked him if he could beat those games while the explanation and level of detail was awesome and that should be the only thing that matters for the customers.
He could leave poker that i'd be glad to keep hearing his thoughts about the game.
I mean, on this site some of the customers are expecting otb_Redbaron's explanation on how he is beating the nosebleed games or a detailed explanation on a HU match against Trueteller.
Very good video!!
Thank you for the support zache, really glad you found this video really insightful!
S.M.S,
I for sure appreciate the constructive criticism. I think it helps us all create better content and you did a great job explaining clearly which practices you didn't think were making people better.
I actually disagree with you here though. In my mind, one of the great things about solvers is that they allow players of any skill level to contribute quantitatively precise analysis of poker hands. It used to be that the best players typically knew the best plays, which led to a culture of hierarchy. Now, guys playing $1/$2 at their local casino on Friday nights can plug my hands into Pio and tell me the six ways I botched it at nosebleeds, and I can learn from them. Great!
In terms of optimal vs exploitative, I also moderately disagree with the assumption that both players in the hand were either attempting to play optimally or exploitatively. It just isn't the case that high stakes players know exactly what equilibrium strats are at every node and then make perfectly calculated deviations to exploit some small errors of their opponent. It's a lot more chaotic and mistake prone than that.
Thank you Ben.
Yes, I understand this ofc. I havent elaborated my point in original post in order not to make it huge. My point was coach should be focussed not on plain overview of equilibriums (especially when we can see signs players in the hand dont follow it for w/e reason) but rather on analysis of deviations we observe in actual hand and on potential adjustments we could make to increase EV against these deviations.
(in some PIO videos coaches come close to this level maybe including some of your videos)
Another thing is such videos might be evaluated higher than 100/month which is fair enough and debatable.
nice video, good to see you are trying out some different types of content. the people who complain that you aren't playing a live session could simply go and look through the thousands of live play videos in the archives of RIO. if you want to improve, personally, these types of videos are far more beneficial than a 3 tables zoom sesh.
ott even though equities R v R are very close, Jungle's range is more polarized and IP is mostly just bluff catching, hence why he is still betting 76% of the time right?? as even if IP has AQ, which is near the top of his flop calling range, it is now just bluff catching. seems extremely difficult in OTB's shoes to know what hands we should now be calling down with. arguably AQ is worse than QTss as we block a couple of AxKd combos. so very difficult spot for him, especially with another street to come (unless he jams of course.)
and fwiw this didn't seem slow at all. seemed actually kinda fast paced, if that's even possible for a 40 min vid on one hand lol.
Hi Demondoing, glad you like the vid :).
As you said, IP's range is made by a ton of bluffcatchers. Pio's calling down range on a brick has a lot of mixing, is calling 90% of AQo, 80% call AQs, is folding 100% KQs, folding 60% KQo, calling 50% of QTs, also calling 87s 25%, 100% call with A7hh xD. JJ is calling 75% too. A complete mess haha.
haha yeah that river calling range seem impossible for us to try to replicate. it would have been an even more interesting hand if we got to the river and OTB was facing an all in. as you say, we mix with everything so we would pretty much just be guessing with our river calls.
2:30 "I think this is going to be a very high EV board for OOP"
I wouldn't say that. It's probably a below average flop for OOP, but one that we still get to cbet a lot if we use a small size. I would say "very high EV boards" are T22, AJ7, K42 etc.
Hey Juan, great job, haters are simply frustrated as always.
hi "juan martin pastor" it is incredible asome for me to see your evolution by using pio and also talk about the hand in the way that every one can notice that you had made a lot of work solving diferents hands...
Im not agree whith s.m.s as he mentioned on the lastest posts about people in the comunity who make good content like (sauce or tylerr forest etc) and other people who cant give us such a product "video quality" as them usually doing, Im a big fan of both (tyler forrest and sauce) and they are very hellpfull and i think you are very helpfull two in this example beacouse you asume things that you implement in your game that cames from pio and from diferentes perspectives wich it is the reason of why you are playing at your stakes.
- I can see a very profund work in this format and i enjoyed a lot the content!!!
- One thing in poker it is we will never know the perfect game we can face in given situation.... but we can asume things that make us closer or far away from this wich would be the best game posible. My point it is that you use and introduce good inputs and simulate this hand as they played between each other and im very glad to see this kind of content!! ty very much and keep going
Thank you very much for the great feedback Martin. Really good to see you participating on the most recent videos, keep up the good work :)!
Liked it again. If you are sick of 3 table videos you could always do a mix in the middle, lets say a hh review on a certain topic, for example a filter with btn hands where you call vs sb 3bet.
Can you do something like this again? New to elite so going through the backlog of vids and while live plays are great there are are a ton of them and more of this would be nice.
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