~40:30 - KQJ9 Kd on QT5dd 8o 5d. I'd fold here. I agree you shouldn't fold a hand you could viably value bet for the same sizing but here you definitely could not value bet the straight for the sizing that your opponent uses so I think that's out the window.

If you have a 8% 3bet range you have 90% more K flushes than naked Kd so if you chose to bluff turn with all Kd then give up occasionally on the river, you would give up at a low enough frequency that your opponent can't profitably call you hoping to bluff when you give up. So you would be less concerned with optimal defense here.

The Q is also the single worst blocker to bluffcatch with here because I think it's by far the most common card in his call turn bluff river range.

Lastly the 5d is terrible for your range after you bet the turn and get called because it drops your flush frequency while it doesn't affect your naked blocker frequency because you so rarely bluff the turn with the naked 5d. You generally just have to c/f more on cards bad for your range (and also c/r when you actually have it, sick as it is to c/r a flush on a 4 diamond board here).

I completely agree with this assessment and I think Phil would too. His call is a definite mistake vs. the ranges of his opponents in this spot. It isn't close either. Rest of the video was outstanding as usual.