agreed, no mention of these hands in regards to your range whatsoever ???

I'd cold-call sometimes here, yes. The only hand that I would (occasionally) 4bet in this spot out of the ones you mentioned is AQo which I didn't include because for simplicity and because it wouldn't change things much.

I don't think having the shorty behind makes it a worse spot to develop a cold calling range. Why do you think it makes things weird? Thinking about it more given that the SB is likely more linear because of the shorty, 4betting specifically AQ with a high frequency might be a good idea, but I don't think the shorty being there means we shouldn't ever flat.

just felt weird at the time because i feel like btn jams and sb rejams a lot and we end up folding...so i guess maybe seems like a sexy spot to have some strong flats in our range putting sb in a not so great spot with hands like 88,99,AQ etc. would be an interesting video idea actually, not something that gets talked about a ton from what ive seen; cold calling 3bets hh review or something

Make sure to keep your logic on why you don't want to flat consistent - if you think that flatting marginal hands is not profitable then it's naturally a great spot to have a lot of traps. Further, from an equilibrium standpoint if you do want to have some traps that naturally allows you to flat weaker holdings. So whether you are trying to be super balanced in this spot or play exploitatively, flatting can/should be part of your strategy, just with different ranges depending on your approach.

Having said that I don't think there is a huge improvement to the EV of your range when you allow flats here.

I don't think nandez should have too many Tx in his range - combining the initial preflop call, that he called the massive squeeze, and that we have 99 blocking 3/4 combos of T9s I really don't see many Tx aside from the occasional ATs.

As such the best bluffs on my end would be hands that block AT rather than the bottom of my range in terms of hand strength. For example if I had 87s here that would seem like a terrible bluff because it blocks 77 and not ATs.

If you want to play this spot perfectly balanced, yes it just comes down to the combinatorics, figuring out what you can value bet and balancing appropriately with the best blockers. I don't think this is a spot you need to worry too much about balance, so I would try to play exploitatively based mostly off what I know about villain, both from a psychological standpoint and how I think he approaches the game and things in big, high pressure spots. WTSD and WSD stats are not too useful here because they are general stats where the sample is mostly going to be derived from easier routine decisions, which translates poorly to this particular spot. My latest video (puzzles vs. mysteries, and soon part 2) actually relates quite well to this spot even though the hand example used is nothing alike. But the general attitudes/approaches presented are good for evaluating how you think about this spot.

Of the top of my head I would guess QJ or JT as the weakest value bet. Probably slightly depends on weather or not the kicker is a diamond, but in that ballpark.

I think sets should generally be betting big but occasionally small as well. We do need some strong hands in the "block bet" sizing to prevent the BB from from being able raise hands like 2 pair for value super profitably.

Hi Kaizen,

So your plan is to x/r to the largest amount that villain will continue against with Ax ~100% of the time so that we win more when we bluff river?

You're giving yourself slightly worse odds on a bluff that way but if you're sure that villain never has Jx then that will certainly make the most money by the river and better than what I did.

Hey,

Against what calling range? I wouldn't consider valuebetting against a regular. Also if we have 55% against his calling range as long as he doesn't bluff raise us we should still bet (I agree with you that a good player will/should and hence make valuebetting -EV).

Just watched on and saw ATs and QTs as 2examples you used in pio. Oh well, any expansion on this topic would still be greatly appreciated

Hi QUAD,

If you're up against opponents that don't call 4bets OOP then for 4-betting in this spot you should pick hands solely based on blockers. Generally wheel Ax hands will have the highest EV since they block AA, AK and AQ and do not block middling hands that 3bet fold (which is why A5 > A9 given the parameters you've set).

Your flatting range should develop fairly naturally since your 4bets will be so polarized. Flat any hand you don't want to 4b/get in that has enough equity to call the 3bet. Generally this will be mid PP+, good suited broadways, AQ, AJs. What you can flat really depends on what sort of 3bet range you are dealing with.