$215 Phase SCOOP Hole Cards Revealed (Part 1)
Posted by Nicolau Villa-Lobos
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nice video! appreciate the analysis of some difficult icm spots.
minute 34:52 mindgamer openshoving seems strange i agree, my question is which hands could he raise call? isnst raise calling vs A5o for example a disaster being out of the tourney 30% of the time with 3 very short stacks...or getting check-shoved by an open-ender on the flop same thing? or is this just too scared of a play?
thanks!
I totally follow your thinking! And I'm not sure If I have the right answer for everything haha. I mean, considering that he wont be able to raise call in general it will be tough to build a raising range. But, I dont think he can exclude the possibility that the other players can make a mistake. I calculated 2 scenarios he could face against the big blind. 1) vs 13% shoving range (much less than what he could shove to pressure mindgamer, but more than I expect the field will do in this scenario). In this one he could only raise call KK and AA. 2) vs 6% shoving range (in my opinion closer to the reality), and also he could only raise call KK and AA, in this one KK earning much less than the scenario 1. So, this makes me conclude that he could raise call both. Post flop scenarios would be more complicated to go further and simulate many boards and etc, but I believe that he will profit a lot in many hands that wont end up in allins. I think most of the scenarios will be collecting the blinds or playing vs the bigblind and winning the hand somehow. The one thing that this spot guarantees us is that he cant have a wide opening range. BTW, he can open shove this 7.4%, JJ+ ATs+ A8s-A2s AQo+ KQs and have a profit. Even though I dont think people will shove the Ax suited.
Between a raise call strategy and an open shove strategy, which one do you guys think is the least volatile? And which one do you guys think the field will perform worse in?
17:36 I don't follow your reasoning for AA Doctor having a low CB frequency on this board. At a glance the board looks great for our range; and I can't simulate this even with a very tight range for gizzetti (flatting AA and KK 50% and flatting QQ 100%). I'm getting results of range CB 50%+ depending on ranges and AQ seems to want to CB most of the time.
So, I think this will depend a bit on how we build both ranges pre flop. Maybe I was a little bit oriented on how AA Doctor played most part of the time (raising a little bit more pre flop than he should, and defending the bb a little bit more too, considering the other stacks and ICM factor (in my opinion obviously)). But considering the ranges I thought, gizzetti would have the advantage on this board. After going in the PIO I could see that AA doctor should cbet more than I expected, but not considering ICM, and this would definitely decrease a bit since gizzetti covers him. But in the end, I guess he will be able to cbet a little bit more than I expected :)
Thanks for your comment Therapist!
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