hi, you are right that we shouldn't make snapdecisions in any situation, this spot def is indeed a close spot but I will give you my reasons why I still think showing is the right move:
-it is BU vs CO , so ranges are wider in general: I will miss more often, he will raise lighter knowing that he has a lot of foldequity
-this is a 'light board' that is difficult to hit , so overpairs become stronger in equity (compared to a heavy board like QT7ss where a bare OP is very weak)
-I block a 5 and don't have any hearts which makes it less likely that he has 2pairs and more likely that he has a flushdraw
-I'd assume that he has much more overpair+FD(or bare NFD) combos then sets /strong combodraws like wrap+FD in his range so I'm pretty sure that I have enough equity to stackoff here +EV
nice analysis, it's important to keep in mind that most of his stackoff range consists of flushdraw with minor secundary equity (overpair or gutshot) that we have good equity against and we would give up to much if we bet/fold in this spot
If we think his range is essentially FD+pair/overpair/gutshot,... What do you think about calling the raise on the flop and get it in Turn on any non flush card? There are still 60 blinds left after the raise.
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hi alien,
@ 24:00 min u play a hand on table 2 were u 3bet AAQ5 on the button.
flop is 3x5h8h and u cbet 15 into 24 with him having 130 behind.
he check raises pot and u instant go all in here.
saying he could have a flush draw so u have to go all in.
dont u think this is a bit to fast of a decision.
he could have any 2 pair, pair with flush draw, pair with straight draw, sets , overpairs with fdraw.
in all cases ur not far ahead or even behind.
im not sure if u move here is correct.
what was your thinking here? and why was it so obvious for u to snapshove?
MundoB.
hi, you are right that we shouldn't make snapdecisions in any situation, this spot def is indeed a close spot but I will give you my reasons why I still think showing is the right move:
-it is BU vs CO , so ranges are wider in general: I will miss more often, he will raise lighter knowing that he has a lot of foldequity
-this is a 'light board' that is difficult to hit , so overpairs become stronger in equity (compared to a heavy board like QT7ss where a bare OP is very weak)
-I block a 5 and don't have any hearts which makes it less likely that he has 2pairs and more likely that he has a flushdraw
-I'd assume that he has much more overpair+FD(or bare NFD) combos then sets /strong combodraws like wrap+FD in his range so I'm pretty sure that I have enough equity to stackoff here +EV
Very nice video Alien Slayer! keep up the good work, really liked your reasoning thoughot the hands as played.
I made a small PJ analysis on the AAQ5 bet/call on 852hh.
Thought I'd share it here.
http://www.evernote.com/shard/s368/sh/2507a2ff-19ec-45d2-9824-58224d98adb2/1c9fa981b6ced4b2084e706160675d2a
nice analysis, it's important to keep in mind that most of his stackoff range consists of flushdraw with minor secundary equity (overpair or gutshot) that we have good equity against and we would give up to much if we bet/fold in this spot
Hello Alien,
If we think his range is essentially FD+pair/overpair/gutshot,... What do you think about calling the raise on the flop and get it in Turn on any non flush card? There are still 60 blinds left after the raise.
Do you think we can make mistake with this play?
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