2 Table $1/$2 6-Max Zoom PLO Live Session (part 2)
Posted by Stefan Legat
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Nice Video. I like your honesty when you don't know the answer!
Here, when the PFR cbets, you fold casually. I thought that I would call.
My thinking was that PFR is cbetting close to 100% here and when you call and he (or the BB) doesn't have and A they will play extremely straight-forward on future streets. Agree?
So how often do they have trips or better is a good question to ask?
So combined they only have trips or better about 58% (so if the hand ended here we should call). But they will still have a little bit of equity if we flat. If we fold that mean we are only calling with trips + ?
I tested it with slightly different ranges:
utg raises FI15 (PokerJuice range for 15% first in)
bb defends with 70%!3B4o (Pokerjuice range for 4% 3b oop)
Then utg has (A,66,KK:ss) in about 43.3% and bb in about 25.3% cases. Combining it we get (43.3 + 0.567 * 25.3 = ) 57.65%. This is when not factoring in, how it affects the other range when we know that one of them doesnt have it.
When factoring it in, the percentages change slightly: 43.6% and 26.5%. Combined it is 58.5% that either one or the other has it.
Now, in case we call and are against that range, we have around 6% equity.
In case we are against the rest of the utg's range, he still has around 21% !!! equity. And that is assuming he cbets 100%. If we assume he only cbets with a tiny bit of something, say like this: !(A,66,KK:ss):(RR,6,cc,ss,KQJT,875,754,987), then he has around 23% equity (= we have around 77%).
So, if the betting ended here, the ev would be:
EV = 41.5% * (77% * (pot+bet+call) - call) + 58.5% * (6% * (pot+bet+call) - call)
pot = $11.5
bet = call = ?? (I am assuming $7 for the calc)
EV = 41.5% * (77% * $25.5 - $7) + 58.5% * (6% * $25.5 - $7)
EV = $5.2 - $3.2 = +$2 = +1bb
But if we are only going to play honest 100% and just fold to any further action, we never deny our opponent any equity, but they might sometimes deny some equity to us (ie. they almost always bet turn with the (A,66) range and we dont realise our tiny river equity or they just continue semibluffing with (ss), ...) .
So although close, it seems to me the fold is actually the correct play if all we intend to do is call and then be done with the hand.
(Hope I got the calcs right, didnt go over them to check.)
Very interesting analisys Joe, thx!
I just want to add that I wouldn´t assume that villain would be cbetting 100% since I don´t do it myself because I feel like betting with a 0 equity hand and no real barrel opportunities is -EV in that spot. Assuming that villain might also not be cbetting his complete air the fold would become much more clear.
Thanks Joe. I think your calcs are correct.
So for a conclusion: We should fold vs someone cbetting reasonably. We can call vs someone over cbetting AND playing straight-forward on T and R.
Another point is that we can bluff when a spade hits either the T or R after it goes ch/ch OTT. As we will be at the bottom of our range and get a lot of credit (I think).
can you tell me the minute or how much he bet?
Like the video, but it might help to record more of the screen, even if you're only two tabling, so you can have your replayer up and not be missing the ongoing action.
Will do for the next vid,
thx for the feedback.
Hi,
nice content. Since it is a "part two" vid my comments about the layout from the first vid still apply. I have some questions:
1:45 You call with QT92ds in CO vs UTG open. Can you give some reasoning, please. I never considered flatting (maybe on the button), because our hand gets much weaker multiway. I would have 3bet or folded. You sounded like folding is not an option?
18:50 KK88r bet/call OTF on JdTd8, you check/call a blank turn and talk about bluffing A,Q and betting out our full houses OTR. I agree, after some SDs and the FD miss there is a possibility to get called by worse. If the board had no FD, would you check/fold OTT? Seems like we cannot extract much value from our underfulls OTR when donking. Overall I don't really like the idea to draw to an underfull oop Villain having some JT,JJ,TT combo is not too unlikely I suppose.
24:50 You did not finish your thoughts on betsizing holding a FH after the flush completed. You mentioned that it depends on the frequency villain has flushes. My guess would be to bet big with our entire (bluff heavy?) range if we think villain has rarely a flush and will fold a lot OTR. And maybe bet smaller when our betting range is stronger (assuming villain would have more flushes).
Regards!
Hi unbuwoha, thx for you questions, sorry for taking so much time to answer them,
1:45; I´m not in love with a 3bet vs utg because the hands dosen´t love to get 4bet because it´s pretty high ranked cards plus the dangler. I still think I can get away with a call there especially since the 2 players in the blinds are tight. That said I think it´s close and I really don´t mind a fold neither especially in a tough lineup.
18:50; I don´t feel like the presence of a FD on the turn changes much so I´d still c/c. Also I´m not too worried about villain raising with JJ/TT/JT very often on the flop that´s why I´m a little more confident drawing to my underfull.
24:50; Agree with you. In that hand I think villain has very few flushes and overall a pretty weak range consisting of mostly overpairs and so I´d like to bet big (maybe 24$) with a lot of bluffs.
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