2-7 Triple Draw: When to Pat 9s
Posted by Iteopepe88
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Solid video iteo, but bet/folding hand 7 instead of calling and drawing 1 feels incorrect to me.
You stated in your assumptions that HJ should be raising all his 1 card draws, which means his range is weighted more to those than pat hands.
Assume for sake of argument that no player will cold call 2 in that spot without a 1 card draw.
At the very least you are getting 15 to 1 for the parlay that
HJ is drawing 1 (75%+?)
AND
You improve to an 87 and become the money favorite in the hand with some reverse implied odds.
OR
No one improves/bets the next draw, it checks around, and you are in a spot where you have ~20% pot equity on the final draw.
I haven't done the math on that parlay , but I can't imagine it doesn't pay off 15 to 1.
Do you mean that you prefer to draw 1 at this hand? Overall it's kind of a tricky a hand and I think this should be the worst option. 8753x isn't much better than 98753. They will not pat better 9s before the 3rd draw, so if they make a hand like 97432 either after the first or second draw they will break that for sure, once I pat here. So i only have to be afriad that they catch the 9 and beat my hand with that at 3rd draw.
With the extra information that i received how my opponents play (both callers called and draw 2, and the raiser will have a 1card lot) I think 3betting and pat should be better than calling. But without reads i still think it will be very close between 3bet-pat/ fold
Iteopepe88 lol that "fck" at 30 minutes after the suck out. Classic.
Getting a lot out of going through some of your older mix game videos. This one and the Badugi one were fantastic. Would love more recent in depth specialized content like this if the chance arises.
I feel like I'm missing something on the equity calculation at 45 minutes. How is catching a 4-5-6 with a 5 and two 6's dead 51% in 2 draws? Are we not factoring in the cards you had?
hey hey! thanks for great videos! got some questions from the 1st part, hope you will find time for this :)
in example 3: we're 97xxx after 1st draw (2-3), betting, got called, than pat-1 card, then bet, call, pat-1 card. whats the plan on river? bet-fold, check-call? is there some optimal hand splitting or more explo there?
in example 4: what if BTN got 96432 instead. im assuming there is a still bet after 1st draw (2-3-2). and then pat (after SB 2 cards, BB 1 card)?
In example 3 with 97xx if it goes 2-3, p-1, p-1, i check decide mostly. It depends on my opponent...Some players overbluff in that spot (bet most of their small pair), some players never bluff (then i fold).
Very rarely i valuebet those if villan likes to bluff/snow catch (E.g: i saw him in a similar spot call with T, or maybe with a J, then i bet-fold these type of hands)
Example 4. Yes with 96432 i probably pat because of the gutshot, and BB'srange looks weaker (I think in general players here have hands like 3457, 3467, 4568 for the bigblind, was suprised to see a clean 8draw). But if my opponent can have these clean 8draws then it's much closer between a pat and a draw, because we can still make #2 and #6
Really excellent examples in a wide range of circumstances. Well done.
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