This is because we don't have the odds to set mine, we have to put in 800 to potentially win 8505 which would give us around 11-1 which is good enough but this implies  that we are always stacking the opener, which we aren't because his range is wide and that we are closing the action which we are not. 

the most profitable play is likely to jam if hes opening enough, if we expect this guy to call AJs+ AQo+ 88+ we have 34.61% equity which means we need the villain to fold 53% of the time

that calling range is 5.88% of hands so if we think hes opening just over 12% of hands we should jam. However this calculation assumes we are in the bb, we still have to account for the two players to act behind being on the button

Perfect answer Thomas, and you even included some bonus material! I dig it. Cheers. 

Very fair point. My first instinct in this spot would be the as James stated in the video: Likely shut down my bluff OTR if unimproved. You make a very compelling case for our river bluff being a very successful (profitable) venture. I imagine if we worked out the specific hands combos, your stance here would be supported. You're right in saying that his Khx and Qhx combos are just going to make up so many sheer combos, that it's going to be tough for him to have enough 78hh and AJ (nutted) value combos to overcome the amount of air combos he'll be left with unimproved on the river. Such river cards (hearts) would be pretty easy for hero to identify as good for OTB's range, and thus easy to shut down on. Most other cards should be great to continue bluffing with, on the strength of how dominant the turn card is for our range vs BTN's range. 

Roughly: BTN will have mostly Khx types. Remaining will be flushes+ (Jx checks back flop) and lots of Ax bluff catchers. Well the nuts of course are calling, but the Ax bluff catchers are in quite a pickle vs our increidble believeable line - we just have so many legitamate value combos that would play that way. 

I believe James said that he won't be calling KJ OTT. Flop he surely is. But I think it's fair to think that a lot of those hands fold the turn, not liking where they stand vs IP's range, and with the fact that they'll likely be facing a river bet from said range, with little chance to improve with just the river to come. 

Hey thanks for that, sorry I didn't reply. If we identify a spot as being very close (which this is) I'd be looking towards tournament considerations to answer what we should do.

Hey mate, first thing to point out would be that we have more nutted hands in our range here than SB and obviously a range advantage against BB. Whilst SB will connect with this decently he is unlikely to raise often given he can only represent KQ, TT, 77. Ergo we should be betting often here and we're getting value and protection from KJ in this instance - just because we may only be able to get 2 streets doesn't mean it'll be easy to get them on turn and river, that we won't have a flop folding hand draw out on us, or that we won't lose more when beat as we would have surrendered control over bet sizing. IMO there's no issue with having a capped range when checking in this spot when BB is in the hand with countless straight draws (yeah, checking back heads up would be more tempting). To be fair though, looking back on this I didn't do a good job of articulating that decision.

You'll probably notice that my videos (especially those I've done before recent times) are a lot less GTO-oriented than other coaches. I would encourage you to let go of any thought processes that involve expressions like "need to", "to protect", etc. that you may have adopted, and to be sure to assess each unique spot on its merits with the mental clarity and freedom to choose the best line to suit the situation. In MTTs especially I think feeling you have to abide by such rules is too big of a handicap to overcome.