$11 Rebuy (part 3)
Posted by Owen Shiels
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Hey Owen! Nice video and congratulations for your result.
On the KdTd do you consider doing a preemptive bet here ? Since he is very unlikely to make this sizings and check the river with the top of his range. He probably didn't choose to turn the 6 pair OTR into a bluff (maybe because of ICM) and I think it is a huge mistake, considering that the majority of our floating range (that isn't that small on this draw heavy board) you will turn it into a bluff here and he can't call very often and against his value range, TT+ we have very few blockers to call it profitably. So a preemptive bet, like 1/4-1/5 pot can induce a jam from him and I would call happily because I don't how our hand isn't best here.
The last hand is just sick. I think his range is A high heavy on checking the flop and he may shove OTR with just the made straight with A there, trying to get out of a chop maybe... but I don't know with this nutty stats that's very likely. I went to his sharkscope, +100k games on PS is definitely a experienced player and he can understand the how your range is perceived pre and OTF.
Your range looks more suited heavy than his for calling a 3b oop and his decision to xb the flop may be influenced by it, considering that he will stack you off very often if the flush hits and almost aren't that many bad cards OTT for his hand (not his range actually). I think in a sequential game it can be a great way to improve your EV since your hand gets very disguised. In a one street game makes no sense to xb this hand on this board and that is why I think he checked this flop. When you bet the river, considering that he has a lot A highs on his range your hand looks like much more a 6 than a A (you may x/r OTR if you had a 6 considering that he probably would bet this river with an A and just call if you bet) so in your range. So basically once you bet the only value hands that you should make is the flushes. I don't know if it is reason enough to x/c this river (I didn't think it the first time I saw this hand, was just shocked by the check behind lol) but now I consider it. Even tough, I don't know if I can get away form this also.
Hey Raphael. Thanks for the comments. I really don't like a bet on the river with the KTdd in this spot. The negatives outweigh the positives in my opinion. We can have a ton of draws that missed on this river so he would probably realise the best way for him to get value out of those would be to check call. So if we bet we are either getting ch/shoved on which puts us in a nasty spot for all the chips. We could be called by better so we value cut ourselves there. Or we get him to fold worse which is essentially the same as a ch back anyway. Its just way too much to risk at this point of the tournament with so many chips at a weak ft.
I like your analysis of the 67s hand but I still think in game v pretty much everyone I am playing it as I did in game. We have to have a very specific read to be able to fold there even against a somewhat tight player.
My thoughts were on bet/call and never bet/fold. I think the post flop spot looks like a lot with this one, http://www.boomplayer.com/poker-hands/Boom/8399280_9533A283A6, and I think opening space for the opponent do something dumb is better than just checking when it is very clear that we have the best hand. In a maximum exploit strategy I see no reason to check behind this river, that's my point.
On the 76s I took more than 5 minutes just to figure out one specific view on this, 12+ tables + time bank I would snap it very often too.
I understood you were bet calling but when he can sometimes have a set or an overpair in his river ch raise and we are the big stacks at the final table it makes little sense to try and go for thin value here. Sure if we know we are ALWAYS ahead here we can go for it but when there is some doubt in such a big pot and a final table caution is the better option......winning another 400k chips doesn't change our situation too much at the FT but losing another 400k cripples us. The risk to reward is just way too high for such thin value here. If we are still in chip accumulation mode with like 100 left in the trny and think he will spazz out often then I like the line but not in this situation.
I certainly agree with your point and don't think that is a mandatory strategy, just it can be implemented in some situations. Probably for ICM reasons that won't be that great here but the questions was more to see if you consider doing it than if is the optimal play. Ty for your responses and keep the good work here.
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