4 Table $10/$20 6-Max Zoom PLO (part 2)
Posted by Phil Galfond
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18:05
A553ds on 765hh, 2o, 5o
You mentioned hands like 876, KK76 potentially wanting to bluff river. How much EV would you estimate those hands have when they check river? If their EV is > 0, and Oddsen calls a river lead at 1-A on river, wouldn't that make EV check > EV shove? It seems like Oddsen's bluff catchers should start at a hand like 88+ or perhaps A76 and he should 1-A from that point in his range in order to make EV(shove)=EV(check) for your bluffs. If that's true does it matter whether we draw Oddsen's bluff catcher threshold at A76* or SET> (by jamming KK76).
I'm not sure exactly how to quantify where we want to set the bar for his bluff catchers when our value range = FH+ and our bluffs can be anything from SET<< to 88<<.
(<<=strictly worse)
If he tries to call approximately 1-A frequency, he should call x% of his whole range not x% of his bluffcatchers.
That's not always the case. The goal isn't to make EV(bluff)=0, it's to make EV(bluff)=EV(check) in order to make villain indifferent between bluffing and check/folding.
Assuming IP's range extends down to some no pair, and he can't fit all of his no pair into his river betting range, then calling @ 1-A of his range would make EV(bluff)=0. In that case EV(check)>0 because he can check down vs no pair and win some small % of the pot, so Hero would never bluff because EV(check)>EV(bluff).
IP should aim to make OOP indifferent between open shoving 76** and check/folding. IF EV(check/fold)>0, then he needs to call at some frequency less than 1-A in order to make EV(check/fold)=EV(bluff).
If IP can get all of his air in on the river when OOP checks, and the EV of check/calling 76** for OOP is negative (which it very well could be if 88 and worse is correctly being bluffed on river), then OOP always check/fold vs a bet or always loses when it goes check/check and gets EV = 0. In this case IP should call with 1-A of his whole range in order to make EV(check)=EV(open shove) for OOP.
"If" is the key word dude. I didn't say he should always call exactly 1-A. You said :
So I just said he should not call the right frequency from that point(or from any point) in his range but from his whole range. Anyway I find your first post a bit ambiguous, so you may mean something else.
My point is that IP should not be calling with the same subset of hands if we bluff KK76 compared to AK76. Assuming his range contains some subset of QQ-88.
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