$100/$200 PLO: 2 Tables 6-Max & 2 Tables HU Vs WCG|Rider (part 4)

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$100/$200 PLO: 2 Tables 6-Max & 2 Tables HU Vs WCG|Rider (part 4)

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Phil Galfond

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$100/$200 PLO: 2 Tables 6-Max & 2 Tables HU Vs WCG|Rider (part 4)

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Phil Galfond

POSTED Mar 30, 2015

Phil continues to dissect his HU and 6-max PLO play as he battles WCG|Rider.

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Ben 9 years, 11 months ago

Nice series. Don't have much of a strategy question just a general video comment. So, at 32 minutes or so, you play a super standard hand with AA34 that ends up going 3 way with JayP and jricardo and turns out to be a big pot. And understandably, you don't have much to say about it because your decisions are easy. But, from an entertainment point of view, my eyes can't help but watch and want to see what hands JayP and jricardo show up with because its interesting in their shoes, especially JayP. So I guess all I'm saying is that it might be nice if you gave some attention to the spots that others are in when a big pot shows up like that rather than gloss over it. What do you think of JayP's flop call?

The hand and flop equities:
Flop: Qc5h9s
Phil: AA34d 14.6%
jricardo: KJT5sd 56%
JayP: AQ87hs 29.4%

So_Nitty 9 years, 11 months ago

So shocking to see the post flop equities....AA even ss can flop so poorly. Even learning this little thing really helped me at the tables tonight. Didn't get stacked as much with weak AA

Phil Galfond 9 years, 11 months ago

Thanks Ben. Good point - no reason not to discuss their plays.

JayP is in a tough spot here. With two bdfds I would usually end up going with it, but he needs to consider that his Ace outs are often dead.

Jricardo will be forced to go with all his KQJJ/JT97/KT97 type hands, and JayP beats a lot of those at showdown for the sidepot, even if he doesn't beat me.

It's going to be hard for him to have very exciting equity in the main pot, but he's likely slightly ahead of Jricardo's range for the sidepot. If we assume his call for the side pot is EV neutral (meaning 50% equity against Jricardo's range), then he is risking 14.5k to win 54.5k in the main pot. I'm getting that he needs around 21% equity to breakeven on that call, which I believe he should have.

That said, I wouldn't be shocked to learn it's a fold after some more in depth analysis.

Pplbamba 9 years, 11 months ago

Table 3 36:21:

What I often find most surprising about your videos is how close your intuitive assessment actually matches the composition of your range. It appears that your range consists of about 20% hands that are weaker than 99+ meaning that the odds you lay him with a 1/3 pot sized bet are about exactly the odds he would need with an over pair. However, I don't understand why you think this would be a poor candidate for a c/r. Opponent likely has very few boats, even if he checks back the occasional boat on the turn. I can't imagine he has more than 7% boats in his river range and the majority of the time significantly less. He does seem to have at least 15% 9 high straights, however. I don't think you allude to whether or not he ever bets this hand for value. If he does, your hand seems to be a pretty good candidate for a c/r bluff. At the very least you block all the board pairing cards, and this in a spot where you probably don't have more than 5% dry 6's in your range, as opposed to probably at least 15% boats. Do you you expect him to call that 1/3 pot very often with overpairs? Do you think that he won't be betting 9-high straights very often? I suppose that if both of these assumptions holds true that the 1/3 pot sized bet is probably good.

Phil Galfond 9 years, 11 months ago

Thanks Ppbbamba. Excellent post.

Firstly - I do think he'll call at some frequency with overpairs, but I don't think he's betting a ton of them on the flop. So there is a bit of value in a bet, but not much.

I think you've got a very good grasp on the spot. I shouldn't have so quickly dismissed this as a x/r bluff hand. I think it's a mental game leak of mine, actually, that I'm very resistant to considering a bluff with strong hands that target such a narrow range (9x and T9).

Perhaps the thought of a x/r with this hand isn't exciting in real-time because:

1) You won't face a bet often, meaning that your x/r plan "won't work"
2) Once they bet you are trying to make them fold a narrow range of hands

It's important to consider that, as I said in the video, it's somewhat unlikely money will go into the pot no matter what we do and the "success" of the x/r doesn't lie only in being able to actually x/r.

If we step back and look at our range, we obviously want some x/r bluffs. Those hands should ideally:

1) Have showdown value in the x/x pots
2) Contain blockers to boats, especially rivered boats. (5/6 seem most valuable for this spot given the action)
3) Lose to his value betting range

As we can see, this hand passes all three with flying colors, so you've convinced me! Thank you.

Zachary Freeman 9 years, 11 months ago

44:45 KK85 SPR1 on AJTr.
We can't choose an action becasue its +ev it has to be higher ev than checking.

Lets assume he opens top 60% hands, and folds 60%-50% as well as rainbow Axxx, and 4bets top 5%. Since SPR is so close to 1 I am going to just assume it is 1.0 so I can work in variable P.
On flop I am assuming he calls with any Aces up, any TP+GS, pair+OESD, wraps, straight, sets, bottom 2pr+ any GS or better, and TP+2BDFDs

This has him calling 49% with 85% equity. fwiw I simmed him calling any bottom 2pr and it barely changes the numbers; it becomes he calls 50% with 85% equity.
EVjam= .50(.15 * 2P-.85 * P)+.50 * P= .225P

Lets roughly say that if we check he won't bluff but will bet the calling range we prescribed above. We will fold to a bet and his folding range from above he will check down.
EVsd= .50*.65P= .325P

looks like checking>jamming; well played I suspected betting was better.

Let me look at b/f. If we bet 25% pot we will be getting 3 to 1 on a jam. Lets assume he continue a little wider now and that we lose every time he continues even if its with a call. He is continuing with TP or better, wraps, OESD, and pr+GS.
He is continuing 70%.

EVsmall bet= .30 * P -.70 * .25P= .125P

checking>jamming>betting small

*Jamming makes it impossible for us to make a mistake and is independant to his strategy. Its possible we dont check strong here often and he has an exploitable +ev bet when we do check so shallow which would make our ev of checking drop considerably.

superbad 9 years, 11 months ago

Hey Phil, very last hand top left table I understand the theory behind c/r'ing hands like this that are just too weak to call but have some nut outs however I find myself questioning not the hand but the board. I feel on this J104 two-tone that when we don't 3b pre while we do have some strong value hands we are gonna be lacking in super strong draws because I think a lot of the AhXh+ nut sd's, wraps+ fd's and 2p+ strong draws are getting 3b pf. I don't think he necessarily has a very big range advantage just more hands that are excited to get a lot of money in now. I also feel like you wouldn't be very excited to c/r even a hand like top set here considering how many turns change the board. What I'm getting at it is that I'm curious how you'd feel about not having a c/r range in this spot in single-raised pots at this spr and just having your sets protect your calling range? This is of course working under the assumption that you wouldn't have a donking range here for similar reasons. A fairly obvious counter I could see to that would be that IP can now bet with some impunity knowing he's never gonna get raised so he can realize his equity and his fold equity. One way I sometimes work around this is to 3b a bit less OOP against strong players as I think there is significant value in having some deception as well as some very strong hands on boards like this.

I guess I kind of rambled there but as always any thoughts would be appreciated, I'm enjoying the series a lot thanks! Mr. Polk plays a very unconventional style for hu I'm not sure I've ever played anybody quite like that though I will say I don't "hate" it.

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