Hello dekkers nice second video on the site you are very active with videos and explain very well/clear i like that with that said i have few questions.(sorry if it's a bit to much then usual :D )
98d on 11min, right table sb vs bb with you NOT holding a heart and that draw bricks + we have bloker to straight isn't it better to check river and let bb bluff/try to bluff overvalue hes weak king instead of us betting high and scare him out of the pot if he have some weak k5s or what ever.
I think gto+ in my calculations in similar spots is check >call/raise versus different people and its more EV then leading OOP,also lead can make us fold best hand when he raises in some casses.+to add to that rec tends to be faceup with the hand they have and he led turn very small 3$ into 11.40 so another reason for me to think hes second pair or weak king or air(letting him bluff then etc)
12:45 89d vs utg i think 3bet is ok if we are abit deepr 160bb+ per say, and flating better here some times as behaind us we have 60$ one tabler. 64$ in sb & 78bb ( 2 weak low stack in blinds we can have position on )is that a good logic to have?(play pretty straightforward as if we are just versus one short stack we may not see the river with a hand that would like to do that as being downside of them being short stack).
13:34 8Th vs button if you have person like this who don't fold to much you would much rather have linear range with broadways pref suited i assume then suited connectors beside some premium ones like JT/T9/98s? and probably 99 or TT + pairs?
16min JTo hand when we block both fd and top pairs (as well as some combos that may have str/gutshot outs) isn't it better perhaps to lead a bit smaller to get some value then a fold like 50% or you think he will call higher bet with some overcards +gutshot anyway?
I loved the KK hand on 34min really good reason and clear thought process!
89d We are playing against a weak player, I like to play exploitive vs them. Most fishes dont fold Kx vs my lead on the river. And if we check I def see some fishes check back Kx
13:58 - On the left table where we have 88 and we turn a set after the flop checks through on Q63r you decide to go for an overbet saying that as he's only playing one table you never expect him to fold any Qx or JJ/TT. My question is how often does villain have these hands after he checks the flop? It's reasonable that he checks a lot of his JJ/TT combos but I would expect most people to stab with their Qx a lot here. If this is the case that he's actually betting most of these hands on the flop wouldn't it make sense to size down a lot to target the weaker parts of his range that are checking back? Or do you think he's checking enough Qx that he will call the turn overbet often enough?
Also there were a couple of hands in the SB where you folded 76o and 87o when unopened to you. Without going back and trying to find the timestamps for those hands is this a default strategy for you or would it have been an adjustment to very loose/aggressive big blinds?
He not a huge fish, he is playing 18/10 so I dont see many hands which he will fold vs a big bet and call vs a small bet( hands like 65 34 are not in his preflop range). Against a player with a higher vpip I like your strategy.
Yea If bb 3bets a ton I like to fold those hands preflop
25.45 w the A2s you never 4b bluff vs wide SQ ranges!? if so what sizing do you gonna use in that example 28 or so!? thing that hand if good 4b vs some people that SQ to much
Nice video Dekkers. I notice you seem to play exploitative quite a bit, would you say the 100NL zoom population has enough fish to do this relatively frequently and not worry about balance too much or do you still try to consider GTO to prevent being exploited by regs?
On the flop I dont understand how jamming would be +EV if he is guaranteed to have a set. You are about 25% to win against a set. I dont think there is close to enough money in the pot to compensate for losing 3/4 times.
10:00 J9s
You mention it is good that the blinds are tight because you will face fewer cold 4Bs when you 4B. I agree. But the same goes for flatting, you are less likely to face a squeeze if they are tight. So is this really a good argument for 3betting over calling?
I would see this as more of an argument for flatting personally as the risk of getting squeezed is usually much more relevant than the risk of getting cold 4bet. Even agressive players wont cold 4B much more than 3% of the time, so the risk of this happening is fairly limited in either case. The difference in Sqz % between a tight player and a more agressive one is much larger imo.
I would expect weak players to almost always bet flop vs missed Cbet if they have TP. I would also think it is very likely they would bet TT/JJ type hands. So I think once they Xb flop their range is actually much weaker than you give them credit for. If I am correct I think betting large in this spot will just get you a massive amount of folds.
Can you explain why you believe you are getting the right odds on turn? You mention you think his range is only flushes and some sets. So we can only win if we hit a flush. If we give him the range you show in flopzilla I think this call loses money.
We have fewer than 9 outs since he has 2 clubs a decent amount of the time. If we assume we will get his whole stack every time we are getting 5-1 odds. but assuming on average 1 out is gone we have a 8/44 chance of making our flush which is about 18%. This would be enough under these assumptions.
However we clearly wont always get his stack if we make our flush. If he has a set and we hit he will likely Xb river. We could donk shove but in that case he may fold (he will definitely fold >0% frequency). The same goes if he has a flush.
It is already fairly close if we assume we will always get his whole stack and we assume we have 8 outs on average (he probably has a flush more than he has a set (3 combos of sets, 5 of flushes) so we actualyl have fewer outs than 8. So having fewer outs and the fact that we wont always get his whole stack surely turns this call into a loser if your range for villains flop raise is correct.
around 12:36, you talk about flatting 98s from the HJ vs an UTG open. even on a weaker table, I don't see how a call here can possibly be +EV. I mean, maybe in a live game where your implied odds are incredible, but even in weaker games online people aren't always just stacking off with top pair or worse every time
I'm not a PIO expert, but is that normal that at 2:55 your range contains QQ+, AK etc?
At 29:51; you say that OTF his range is mostly 9x,7x,4x, why do you raise so small OTR? We aren't afraid of any hand at this point, I think against a half pot raise he doesn't fold a 9x or random rags, it seems like we are never value cutting ourselves here, right?
Great Video. Pio Analysis at 2:55 you messed it up a little bit. You check called in your analysis and you have the Raisers Range. I like that even strong players like you make mistakes ;-)
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Hello dekkers nice second video on the site you are very active with videos and explain very well/clear i like that with that said i have few questions.(sorry if it's a bit to much then usual :D )
98d on 11min, right table sb vs bb with you NOT holding a heart and that draw bricks + we have bloker to straight isn't it better to check river and let bb bluff/try to bluff overvalue hes weak king instead of us betting high and scare him out of the pot if he have some weak k5s or what ever.
I think gto+ in my calculations in similar spots is check >call/raise versus different people and its more EV then leading OOP,also lead can make us fold best hand when he raises in some casses.+to add to that rec tends to be faceup with the hand they have and he led turn very small 3$ into 11.40 so another reason for me to think hes second pair or weak king or air(letting him bluff then etc)
12:45 89d vs utg i think 3bet is ok if we are abit deepr 160bb+ per say, and flating better here some times as behaind us we have 60$ one tabler. 64$ in sb & 78bb ( 2 weak low stack in blinds we can have position on )is that a good logic to have?(play pretty straightforward as if we are just versus one short stack we may not see the river with a hand that would like to do that as being downside of them being short stack).
13:34 8Th vs button if you have person like this who don't fold to much you would much rather have linear range with broadways pref suited i assume then suited connectors beside some premium ones like JT/T9/98s? and probably 99 or TT + pairs?
16min JTo hand when we block both fd and top pairs (as well as some combos that may have str/gutshot outs) isn't it better perhaps to lead a bit smaller to get some value then a fold like 50% or you think he will call higher bet with some overcards +gutshot anyway?
I loved the KK hand on 34min really good reason and clear thought process!
89d We are playing against a weak player, I like to play exploitive vs them. Most fishes dont fold Kx vs my lead on the river. And if we check I def see some fishes check back Kx
Really enjoying the videos. Like the length, the 2 tables and the explanations. Keep up the great work!
Hey Dekkers, enjoyed the video!
Had a couple of questions:
13:58 - On the left table where we have 88 and we turn a set after the flop checks through on Q63r you decide to go for an overbet saying that as he's only playing one table you never expect him to fold any Qx or JJ/TT. My question is how often does villain have these hands after he checks the flop? It's reasonable that he checks a lot of his JJ/TT combos but I would expect most people to stab with their Qx a lot here. If this is the case that he's actually betting most of these hands on the flop wouldn't it make sense to size down a lot to target the weaker parts of his range that are checking back? Or do you think he's checking enough Qx that he will call the turn overbet often enough?
Also there were a couple of hands in the SB where you folded 76o and 87o when unopened to you. Without going back and trying to find the timestamps for those hands is this a default strategy for you or would it have been an adjustment to very loose/aggressive big blinds?
Thanks!
He not a huge fish, he is playing 18/10 so I dont see many hands which he will fold vs a big bet and call vs a small bet( hands like 65 34 are not in his preflop range). Against a player with a higher vpip I like your strategy.
Yea If bb 3bets a ton I like to fold those hands preflop
25.45 w the A2s you never 4b bluff vs wide SQ ranges!? if so what sizing do you gonna use in that example 28 or so!? thing that hand if good 4b vs some people that SQ to much
I dont have stats on him, if we have then this is a good hands to 4b bluff. 28-35 I will make it
and then you play to call shove? w A2s? you have like 30% EQ vs JJ+ AKo+ if you make it 30 guess you priced?
Nice video Dekkers. I notice you seem to play exploitative quite a bit, would you say the 100NL zoom population has enough fish to do this relatively frequently and not worry about balance too much or do you still try to consider GTO to prevent being exploited by regs?
Against good regs I like to play GTO unless I find leaks in their game.
A7s 5:50
Is this even close? To me that seems like a very easy snapcall given your pot odds, as well as the decent playability of your hand.
The previous was about the preflop call.
On the flop I dont understand how jamming would be +EV if he is guaranteed to have a set. You are about 25% to win against a set. I dont think there is close to enough money in the pot to compensate for losing 3/4 times.
Easy call preflop yea
Yes we have 29% vs sets so thats not enough (I didnt realise how deep we were)
10:00 J9s
You mention it is good that the blinds are tight because you will face fewer cold 4Bs when you 4B. I agree. But the same goes for flatting, you are less likely to face a squeeze if they are tight. So is this really a good argument for 3betting over calling?
I would see this as more of an argument for flatting personally as the risk of getting squeezed is usually much more relevant than the risk of getting cold 4bet. Even agressive players wont cold 4B much more than 3% of the time, so the risk of this happening is fairly limited in either case. The difference in Sqz % between a tight player and a more agressive one is much larger imo.
Yea calling would be the best play with this hand, we can better use other hands to 3b with(hands which aren't good enough to call with)
14:30 88
I would expect weak players to almost always bet flop vs missed Cbet if they have TP. I would also think it is very likely they would bet TT/JJ type hands. So I think once they Xb flop their range is actually much weaker than you give them credit for. If I am correct I think betting large in this spot will just get you a massive amount of folds.
Agree his range isnt strong, but now we get max value from his draws
19:00 AcKx
Can you explain why you believe you are getting the right odds on turn? You mention you think his range is only flushes and some sets. So we can only win if we hit a flush. If we give him the range you show in flopzilla I think this call loses money.
We have fewer than 9 outs since he has 2 clubs a decent amount of the time. If we assume we will get his whole stack every time we are getting 5-1 odds. but assuming on average 1 out is gone we have a 8/44 chance of making our flush which is about 18%. This would be enough under these assumptions.
However we clearly wont always get his stack if we make our flush. If he has a set and we hit he will likely Xb river. We could donk shove but in that case he may fold (he will definitely fold >0% frequency). The same goes if he has a flush.
It is already fairly close if we assume we will always get his whole stack and we assume we have 8 outs on average (he probably has a flush more than he has a set (3 combos of sets, 5 of flushes) so we actualyl have fewer outs than 8. So having fewer outs and the fact that we wont always get his whole stack surely turns this call into a loser if your range for villains flop raise is correct.
Agree nice analyses!
around 12:36, you talk about flatting 98s from the HJ vs an UTG open. even on a weaker table, I don't see how a call here can possibly be +EV. I mean, maybe in a live game where your implied odds are incredible, but even in weaker games online people aren't always just stacking off with top pair or worse every time
Great video, as usual!
Hi Dekkers, very good video, thx.
I'm not a PIO expert, but is that normal that at 2:55 your range contains QQ+, AK etc?
At 29:51; you say that OTF his range is mostly 9x,7x,4x, why do you raise so small OTR? We aren't afraid of any hand at this point, I think against a half pot raise he doesn't fold a 9x or random rags, it seems like we are never value cutting ourselves here, right?
Great Video. Pio Analysis at 2:55 you messed it up a little bit. You check called in your analysis and you have the Raisers Range. I like that even strong players like you make mistakes ;-)
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