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Zplo - turn and river spots with OESD & 2nd nfd?

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Zplo - turn and river spots with OESD & 2nd nfd?

BN: $26.49
SB: $111.18
BB: $111.94
UTG: $351.34
HJ: $231.18
CO: $195.75 (Hero)
Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt K 6 5 K
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $1
Flop ($3.25) 4 7 A (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.50, BB raises to $8, Hero calls $5.50
Turn ($19.25) 4 7 A T (2 Players)
BB bets $12, Hero calls $12
River ($43.25) 4 7 A T 6 (2 Players)
BB checks

The BB is relatively nitty and has a fold to steal % in BB of ~70% (don't have exact hud #s atm).

1. Turn fold / raise > call?

2. What hands (that he check-raises on flop) is a bet taking him of off on river?  In game, my thoughts were the obvious: nfd / A4 / A7.  We could obviously getting snapped off by set or even AT, but there are 86.5bbs in there.  Could use some assistance in determining what % of the time he's mucking to determine what size of a stab could be justified as profitable. 

Thanks!




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