Zplo - turn and river spots with OESD & 2nd nfd?

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Zplo - turn and river spots with OESD & 2nd nfd?

BN: $26.49
SB: $111.18
BB: $111.94
UTG: $351.34
HJ: $231.18
CO: $195.75 (Hero)
Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt K 6 5 K
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $1
Flop ($3.25) 4 7 A (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.50, BB raises to $8, Hero calls $5.50
Turn ($19.25) 4 7 A T (2 Players)
BB bets $12, Hero calls $12
River ($43.25) 4 7 A T 6 (2 Players)
BB checks

The BB is relatively nitty and has a fold to steal % in BB of ~70% (don't have exact hud #s atm).

1. Turn fold / raise > call?

2. What hands (that he check-raises on flop) is a bet taking him of off on river?  In game, my thoughts were the obvious: nfd / A4 / A7.  We could obviously getting snapped off by set or even AT, but there are 86.5bbs in there.  Could use some assistance in determining what % of the time he's mucking to determine what size of a stab could be justified as profitable. 

Thanks!




7 Comments

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spassewr 10 years, 11 months ago

Some ppl fold0% if u pot here, others fold close to 100% so its hard to say. In general i wouldnt bluff here if we dont care too much about balance and villain isnt too familiar w us....id bluff if villain doesnt expect me to.

His range is prob something marginal like top pair+fd w that bet sizing ott or a monster like top2/set+fd...i dont wanna bluff vs a most likely strong range that goes into a bluff catching mode on a not so scary river when others draws miss.

John Beauprez 10 years, 11 months ago

His turn sizing looks weak, and many guys at this stake don't use that sizing for the purpose of inducing.. If he bet near pot I'd just call. As played I'd jam turn. 


ilovetiger 10 years, 11 months ago
John - what does a turn jam accomplish? I agree with his sizing being somewhat small and possibly exploitative, but our hand dominates all his drawing hands and we're dominated(somewhat) by all his value hands.....are you expecting him to b/f a4/a7? I think calling is better but maybe I'm missing something here.


Andreas Nyberg 10 years, 11 months ago

I dont think a turn jam accomplish much either , his not folding top two and his range contains alot of A+NFD and sets wich are obv not folding either, the only hands we get to fold are his air.

carmourr 10 years, 11 months ago

For some reason I doubt he is check folding this river and although it does seem tempting to bluff here because we bricked everything, I don't think we can rep much, our range looks v. bluff heavy and his river check looks like a check call for the most part. 

The tough thing about the turn is when we hit the river our hand kind of looks exactly like what it is and I don't see us getting a tonne of value here when we hit. This is exacerbated by the fact the NFD is a large part of his range. Is he likely to pay us off if a diamond comes? Maybe if he has a flush himself, but would be apretty easy fold with most of his range.

I guess you can jam turn and maybe get A4/A7 to fold but when you get it in you are pretty crushed and i think you are getting called a lot when you jam turn. Kind of gross spot really.



Sean22 10 years, 11 months ago

I'm not inclined to bluff here with this hand, as carmourr said it looks like a x/c from him.  I would bluff this spot with some frequency, probably when I had some blockers to his bluff catchers

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