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Zoom 500 interesting turn spot 200bb deep 3bet pot

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Zoom 500 interesting turn spot 200bb deep 3bet pot

BN: $500
SB: $300
BB: $505
UTG: $1011.13
HJ: $599.36
CO: $1125.36 (Hero)
Preflop ($7.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A 2 A K
UTG raises to $17.50, HJ folds, Hero raises to $60, BN calls $60, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls $42.50
UTG is a regular with 17% RFI from UTG. I make a standard 3bet
Flop ($187.50) J 6 3 (3 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $121.90, BN folds, UTG calls $121.90
I cbet the flop 2/3 Pot and UTG calls. Pretty standard i would assume
Turn ($431.30) J 6 3 4 (2 Players)
UTG bets $428.50
Villain donks for nearly pot with 400 behind so i need about 40% if i want to go all in and my opponent always calls which is obv the case here unless he missclicks.
So do I have more than 40% here with my AA+Nutflushdraw+gutter vs villains range???
He opens 17% from UTG so made straights are not to likely although of course possible with hands like KK75(52) or A765 or 8765 which are reasonable calling hands on the flop.
Hands with a pair FD and gutter seem kind of likely to me like KK87(85) all Jacks with flush draw. These Hands could just think this is a terrible turn for my range (which is true) and i need to fold very often (which is also true). on the other hand his Aggressionfactor is only 1,89 so would he even do that?? Some slow played sets are also possible and some unlikely 2pairs maybe.

so i guess the question is does he have enough hands of the cat which i crush in his range??
if i even fold OP+FD+gutter here which is in the top of my range he could bet this turncard all the time cause i prob fold more often than 90% in this spot...

I ended up jamming the turn after tanking a long time but I'm not convinced that was the right play.
I hope u guys can help me out here. this is my first post :-)

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