wrap+fd, tell me when to raise
Posted by spassewr
Posted by
spassewr
posted in
Mid Stakes
wrap+fd, tell me when to raise
villain is a good reg. 3bets 12-20% pre here, prob folds less than 10% pre.
raise cb ip = 22%(60). raise cb ip vs hero = 38%(8). raise fold ip 0/5 (im skeptical of this stat and it doesnt obv mean that he never raise-folds).
we have 60% eq vs a gii-range that looks like this: T7:(86+,QT+,hh),hh:(66,88,99),Ahh:(96+) and even if he only raises this on the flop and gii with this, the ev of a "shove" =$400.
a friend pointed out that calling flop and x-ring turn bricks may be better tho, letting him fire one more with his raise-folds, and well still have 35-50% eq vs his flop gii range on all brick turns.
is playability an issue if we re-pop it otf? ie he calls and we have a tough spot on flushing and board pairing?
or do you prefer calling flop+turn?
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the currency is not $, this is basically 0.5/1$ so dont hesitate to give me your input even if u play low stakes only...
I like call flop c/r turns if spr is 15-20 versus a very aggro thinking opponent (which it seems we are). At 25 spr there is too much value in getting it in on the flop with an equity advantage versus the top part of his range.
I don't like calling flop and turn. I think when you make your hand it is pretty hard to get paid. What is his bluffing frequency on rivers though? Any reads in this regard? Does he bluff a lot when draws miss? Does he like to rep any draw that comes in?
id expect him to barrel all non flushing turns with his entire range....and bluff with his air otr. i ofc dont know how much air he has in his range, altho im assuming any TT or 77 that isnt strong enough to call will raise flop and follow thru on brick runouts.
id also expect him to slow down, or at least polarize his range on flushing turns (and rivers)
I guess you could just call the flop. The difficult turns are hearts and board pairs. At low stakes though I think so many opponents will be trying to get it in with really strong hands which you dominate. I am wondering though, is it likely that he would raise a hand like 66? If yes then I would reraise and hope he sticks it in. On a such a dynamic flop it is not uncommon for people to flat really strong made hands waiting for a safe turn.
thx for the response
we re talking bet-call flop right? id never x-c. theyre prob both +ev (bet-call flop, x-r turn and bet-RR flop) the question is, which is better.
i am 90% sure he isnt raising 66 unless he has a fd with it. he basically has a raise-gii range that is ahead of bare nutstr8 or a raise-gii range that is ahead of a range of nuts+redraw and other hands that are ahead of hands that are ahead of the nuts (hands that are ahead of my perceived bet-RR range basically).
and his raise folds, mainly blockers that "cant" call prof in his opinion, and weak draws that "cant" call...
i dunno how big a part those raise-folds make of his total range which is the conundrum here. vs some1 that has a ton of raise-folds and some nutted hands we do better by b/c x-r most turns....if hes got few raise-folds we are prob better off pushing our eq and lowering the spr since i dont expect him to bet-gii on the turn light like T7xx on 986hh J he may actually bet-fold unless he happens to commit himself.
i hope that made sense
Yep I meant bet/call. i think we could use the count feature on PPT and work out his combos etc. i don't have time at the moment but will give it a go on the weekend. I will use the range you assigned for GII plus a bet folding range. Would have to set up some sort of decision tree I think. Really do not know how to go about this but I will try to work it out and post something in the next few days.
Being OOP, I would just go nuts. There isn't nearly as much value in trying to take him off straights on pairs or saving money against bigger flushes or w/e given our position so might as well negate his advantage and get it in good.
agree with tom, ip calling makes perfect sense, but oop u have to stack off
yea alright you guys convinced me. i guess i need to have a great read that this flop raise sizing = 80%+ raise folds? and that he then will fire all non flushing turns for a x-r to be preferable. i dont have that read, and i cant do the math in my head (to figure out when b/c x-r turns becomes better)
RR flop is def +EV, perhaps massively so (like 40bbs if he doesnt have a raise-call range otf) so i shouldve just re-potted it perhaps.
any1 got a good way to figure it out?
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