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click on "enter link desription". ill try again just in case...

weaktight hand

A check on the turn would make your range capped. I think you have to make a turn c-bet that looks like you are commiting. You may induce folds to his flop call range that beats you, and he may also folds hands that have some of your outs in bad shape. I think hero has a lot of AQxx type hands that you can make him fold on the turn, especially if he has no spade draw. His 9Txx are just a small part of his flop calling range (I would need a simulation on propokertools to back me, but I think I'm right with that). On the river you will essentially be bluff catching, thin value betting, or folding. I may be too simplistic in my reasoning, but to live a simple life, I would refrain from making a difficult decison on the river by commiting on the turn.

We have 9 high with no SDV, yet our equity is pretty good against anything but T9 (vs. QJ we still have 45%+). With SPR=1.1 we don't even need any FE to make jamming a profitable play, but in reality we might have some, albeit not much, FE against his range. That said, there is no doubt that shoving here is a +EV play.

For checking back to be better than jamming here, either of the following criteria has to be met:

a) We can bluff him off on the rivers that didn't improve us, and this FE is greater than that we had on the turn
b) We can get called when we improve, and this happens more often than it would have on the turn (i.e. we have good implied odds on the river)

I think b) might be true to some extent, especially on backdoor spades and low straightening cards, but we can't be too sure. On the other hand, I just don't think a) is the case when we check back the turn with low SPR, thereby capping our range.

Given that we improve on the river ~half the time, a) and b) should have roughly equal weight, and in overall I think we gain more by jamming the turn than checking back.

I understand both newradical and midori explained. (Hi, Midori, how r u doing)
This might be somewhat newbie question here but, my question is, "do you (or have you ever) check(ed)-back on the flop in a certain case (situation) on this flop?"

e.g.
1) When you have specific read on Vil. (like this hand, Vil is station)
2) When the board is two-tone of cc or dd, which you don't have flush draw.
3) etc..

I would bet on the flop almost every time, and I'm not sure if I have ever checked back on the flop like this in general. But also, I would feel uncomfortable on the turn since I knew he is station, and he did check-call on the flop as I expected. (And still my hand is not completed though it has good Eq.)

myea i talked to a friend about this, and we did some math. its super close on the turn, changing his flop range or turn range slightly causes a relatively big change in EV(shove) compared to checking back and realizing our eq. the wider his pre range the more we prefer jamming turn, the wider his flop calling range the more we prefer jamming turn.

if he starts calling off with middle 2p and a sucker str8 draw jamming becomes worse etc etc.

the main critique i got was betting this flop as well as 3betting pre. i wouldnt have 3b knowing ill get cold called 60%+ but checking flop is interesting. it seemed nitty to me at first, now i dont remember if we had 20 or 40% feq otf (if our assumptions were right). i figured "no sdv, we do fine vs a raising range, lets bet" but perhaps were setting ourselves up to play a huge pot with little feq on the turn when we bet.

whats ur std on the flop?