Winrate - Calling River Bets

Posted by

Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Winrate - Calling River Bets

What is a legitimate win rate on calling a river bet?

I want to make sure that I am not calling too often, but I have no clue what the win rate should be. Obviously, it depends how you get to the river and a lot of other factors. Any insight will help, thanks.

4 Comments

Loading 4 Comments...

paradigm24 8 years, 2 months ago

I would take a look at the stats WSD when called river and river call efficiency. My stats for those during 2016 were 43.7% and 1.7 respectively. For river call efficiency, I read a post that said that anything above 1 is decent, anything above 1.5 is very good, and anything above 3 you are calling way too tight. Also, I took a look at some of the other good players in my database and while I think these stats take a very large number of hands to be meaningful, most of there WSD when called river bets were between 38-43%. Hope this helps.

SeacombePLO 8 years, 2 months ago

I wouldn't read too much into it to be honest. Aim to make good decisions, don't aim to have specific stats. Having "optimal" RCE is gonna change depending on your style, environment etc. Plus, it's a stat based exclusively on river play so your sample has to be huge for it to be even slightly meaningful. You can relatively easily play 50k hands and have a RCE of 0.8 and have made right decisions, or have a RCE of 1.8 and have huge leaks. Imo not worth spending time looking at stats before your decision making process, look at your decision making process and the stats will become whatever they are

This isn't to say stats have no use, but I've seen people have cbets of 80% for example, see that stat, want to get it down to 70% so just start cbetting less without any real thought as to where. The stat indicated where there could be an error in thought process, and as thought process is adjusted so is the stat, but changing decisions simply just to change the stat can often be worse than having left it alone. Especially in situations like river calling stats where very large samples are needed for anything meaningful I think trying to aim for numbers is going to do your game more harm than good

erhallow24 8 years, 2 months ago

Thanks, just checked and my river call efficiency is 1.52 over 400k hands :)

I had never looked into that stat before. I felt like i was getting killed on the river recently, but maybe it was just some variance.

paradigm24 8 years, 2 months ago

I think Seacombe makes some really good points in his post. If your instinct was that you may have been making some poor river calls recently, it is likely worthwhile to filter your database for hands that you called a bet on the river over the last month or two and review those hands individually.

Be the first to add a comment

Runitonce.com uses cookies to give you the best experience. Learn more about our Cookie Policy