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What to do on turn?

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

What to do on turn?

BN: $115.50
SB: $1231.95 (Hero)
BB: $327.70
UTG: $653.20
HJ: $543.42
CO: $297.98
Preflop ($3.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A 2 T K
UTG raises to $6, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero calls $5, BB folds
Flop ($14.00) 6 Q 9 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $10, Hero raises to $36, UTG calls $26
Turn ($86.00) 6 Q 9 8 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $83.20

Villain is opening 16% utg and seems like a good reg.

I XR the flop since I have no SDV and I can call a 3bet. On the turn I check because I feel this turn hits his range pretty hard. I have blockers to high FDs so I think his range is heavy in wraps and Q9.

What is my plan on the turn when he pots? If I look at my hand I only have 25% vs his range and not a lot of outs with implied imo. The flush is pretty obv. Can/Should I call with the intention of bluffing paired rivers and repping QQ? Or is that not a great option wo a Q blocker in my hand?

Should I just XF my hand?

13 Comments

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plac730 11 years, 9 months ago

i think the mistake in this hand was not betting the turn. i think a 1/2-2/3 pot bet is good here because it allows us to set the price and leaves our range uncapped. if we get raised here, we can now call with our 25% equity but now all board pairing rivers become easy bluff candidates now that he has tipped his hand.

c/r flop, check the turn is a VERY weak line with stacks this deep. he can bet pot very confidently knowing you are always going to either c/c or c/f and never going to c/r the turn with so much money behind.

RiverOfTears 11 years, 9 months ago

Thnx. I understand what you are saying and I am betting almost all turns. My point is that the Kd blocker takes out a lot of his continue range on the flop like KK:dd, Kd(Q,J):dd skewing his range towards wraps/2p. I haven't done any math on this (yet) but I might do it.

So, I would bet this turn if I didn't have Kd in my hand. Do you still think I should bet the turn anyway? Maybe I overestimating the effect of Kd in my hand.


jonna102 11 years, 9 months ago

I think you should consider folding this hand pre.  Make it suited to the A and the K and you can consider 3-betting it, but this particular hand is just going to flop unhappy things too often.  There will be gutters, there will be top+bottom pair and there will be T high fd's and neither of those are all that exciting to play deep from the SB.

RiverOfTears 11 years, 9 months ago

Hmm maybe you are right regarding preflop. I guess it was just too pretty. I think I will try to 3bet or fold more from SB in the future.

Regarding postflop...I think that if you look at my xr range vs his bc range on the flop then I have more topsets and NFDs and he has more wraps. So on the turn blanks, diamonds and pairing cards favor my range while straightening cards favor his range. I think the 8c is probably the worst card in the deck for my range and a card that I should actually be checking a lot. Remember he had a 55% BF so he is not continuing with anything. Given my Kd blocker I think it is even more of a check. I think I have very very little FE so I see no point betting? But maybe there are some concepts that I have misunderstood especially deep.

I will do a more in depth analysis soon.

Zachary Freeman 11 years, 8 months ago

Dont fold PF. 

I do agree with most of your analysis for the turn. That being said I think Id still bet. Firstly, you have a T blocker for straights. Also this deep he is probably only raising JT on turn for value. Also, you can get him to fold Q9. If you get raised, it sucks yes however you have 2 options. You have about 26% equity vs the nuts. If he pots raises the turn, you will need to get about a 1/3 pot bet on average called on river. That is prob not achievable. 

C/c turn doesn't accomplish much more given if you c/c turn and lead diamonds you will run into the same dilemma about not getting paid enough.

Other option is to b/c turn and lead board pairs. Problem is you often are checking sets on the turn and he can have boats as well given once you check turn he will bet his Q9 and sets.

Id prob b/f turn.

rengonnaren 11 years, 8 months ago

why dont people think we can rep sets by xc-lead board pairing? most of our QQ/99 combos have Gs's as well. yes were going to BC turn w/ set+fd, so given our made hand range, diamonds arent that helpful, while we only have NFD in our xr-xc range because i think were more likely to bet turn w/ mid fd+2pr or 2nd3rd straight+fd, so i think we can actually check diamond rivers as hell bet his medium diamonds/2prs (its hard for him to have bare JT) and we can x/r , and lead board pairings

or is my thinking too convuluted? i really dont think much of our xr range except for JT+fd/set+fd is continuing the turn, and would probably want to x turn with my whole range


AllanHorne 11 years, 8 months ago

Call 10/10 preflop. Folding this hand pre must be a huge leak. I saw you wrote "3bet" - You should never 3bet this hand vs utg, even if it was A and K suited. That hand plays awesome multiways (assuming BB will call). 

Lead flop, too deep to c/r - We will get into situations like this. 
And i would bet turn everytime as 1. we block one of the 10's and 2. we can easy present J10 and bet alot of rivers aswell either in bluff or when we hit (or c/c when our flush hit, opponent depended) - Fold to raise. 

As played fold turn. 

TJ Serdar 11 years, 8 months ago

I'm not sure I see why leading flop is significantly better than ch/r'ing or even ch/ca'ing for that matter against an opponent who c-bets too wide.  I can see arguments between ch/r'ing or ch/ca'ing flop, but it seems wrong to me to take a line which hinders our opponent from making a mistake vs us by c-betting too much.

I'm really not sure how I'd proceed on turn.  I feel like I'd lean towards betting again with our T blocker making it less likely we're up against a straight or get raised, we put more pressure on the majority of villain's range(2pr's/overpair+gutter type stuff)  and more likely we realize our equity.  However I think rengonnaren's points are pretty interesting.  

RiverOfTears 11 years, 8 months ago

Thanks for the feedback. Nice to know that it was a close spot. Regarding preflop I agree that I should flat 100% (which is what I did), however at the time of posting there was so much talk about 3bet/fold from the SB. But I think that a lot of hands play fine as flats from the SB including this one.

The discussion regarding leading flop/check rasing is not very interesting imo and besides the point. People can balance their flop ranges as they want and I prefer to xr nutty hands vs players who cbet a lot. I can barrel every single turn in the deck, maaaybe with the exception of this 8c.

I think that if I look at the blockers in my own hand I have a T blocker, but no Q9 blockers. I think that skews Villains range towards Q9. The problem is that a lot of Q9 hands in the top 16% will also at least a GS or a FD on this turn (about 75% to be precise) that I think I have very little FE. If that is true what is the point of betting?

I am thinking like rengonnaren that checking my whole range here (when the 8c hits) is probably not bad. It means I have hands that can XR sometimes so Villains can't just autobet. It also means that I can call and credibly lead certain rivers as bluff which I need to be able to do to call a big turn bet with this particular hand.

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