What to do against good aggro reg HU?

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What to do against good aggro reg HU?

BB: $124.46 (Hero)
SB: $165.68
Preflop ($0.75) (2 Players)
Hero was dealt A J A T
SB raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $4.50, SB calls $3
Flop ($9.75) 8 T 3 (2 Players)
Hero bets $3.75, SB calls $3.75
Turn ($17.25) K (2 Players)
Hero bets $8.25, SB raises to $28.25
He has been raising me a bit, def capable of raising here with 2pair. what do you think the best play is here as deep as we are?

5 Comments

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Phil Galfond 11 years, 11 months ago
I wouldn't expect him to be very light here for value (in other words, I don't think he has K8), so jamming seems wrong to me.

How often he's raising with weak semibluffs depends on the opponent, of course, but most players rarely semibluff in this spot too, given that they almost always have a hand/draw "too good" to semibluff with.

So it looks to me like against most opponents, you're very often up against KT or a set.

I don't think we can call rivers with unimproved AA, so we're calling strictly for our draw. I think we can call and lead A, Q and club rivers, along with most 9 & J rivers. Normally I'd want to x/r some nutty hands, but since I feel he has made hands rather than draws or bluffs, x/r on a club seems like too much missed value. I also think that when you hit a Q, he checks back his 2pr and set hands since almost every straight draw got there.

So call, lead those rivers, and x/f almost every other river, unless you get some kind of very strong read.

Normally, I'd be more worried about running into straights on some of these bluff outs, but because I don't think he's raising the turn with draws very often, I just don't think he's hitting them enough for us to be too concerned with it.

ianks 11 years, 11 months ago
thanks phil that's really helpful! i guess i am still getting caught in the NLHE mind-trap of fold equity, as i think that could make shoving here a good play, when in reality there is next to no fold equity.

say we do hit a club, what sizing do you like to lead for value against a thinking reg?
hellsen83 11 years, 11 months ago
lead big when you spike OTR. if you're unsure whether you wanna bet 80 or 90% of whatever, always take the bigger size. Potting is a good choice in many of these spots.

as for F/T sizing, I'd definitely recommend betting bigger OTF. if he's got a draw, which there are plenty of, he is gonna call/raise. since we are aheadof his calling range( (not to say: have it crushed in plo terms) , we lose a lot of value by betting small here. If he is a little spewy and likes to spazzraise you on that board, why would you want to bet small and jam over his 13.25$ bluff when you could be betting 7.20$ and pick up his 22.95$ (we are obviously never folding) ?
turn is debatable but I'm prob betting somewhere in the 60-70% range there as well. now call and spike :)
Tom Coldwell 11 years, 11 months ago
I don't play HU (hence why I tend to leave HU hands alone), but I'm really struggling to understand the flop bet-sizing. I just can't see how 1/3 pot on a board like that can be good with most anything. I woulda thought around double your bet-size (if not larger) would have been preferable.

Also, do people really not raise K8 here? 'Cas flop and turn bets of that size, I woulda thought K8 is a pretty easy value-raise... but maybe not.

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