Fold vs 4-bet. Rake is huge, you are not deep and oop. Fold Flop.

Hey Marius!
It's very simple to calculate this.

First, pre-flop, when you 3bet, you invest 9,4bb, right? So if you fold here, your move will be -940bb/100

The question is: If I call, will I get my money back or lose more?

Your call pre-flop: $4.80
Pos-flop: 18,57
Pot: 51,54
Odds; 36%

So we need >36% equity pos flop

Look this graph:

This graph shows your hand against aces. You will have 36% of equity ~41,5% of the time. So 58,5% of the time you will fold on the flop.

Call% = 41,5%
Fold% = 58,5%

And what is our equity when we moves all in? We need to calculate this too.
Blue line: (0,97 - 0,56)/2+0,56 = 0,77 and that happens 16% of the time.
Red line: (0,56 - 0,36)/2+0,36 = 0,46 and that happens 25% of the time.

Our Average Equity: L1 + L2

L1 = AEl1 * Frequency / CALL%
L1 = 0,77 * 0,16 / 0,415
L1 = 29,7%

L2 = 0,46 * 0,25 / 0,415 = 27,7%

AE = 29,7% + 27,7% = 57,4%

Now, we need to calculte our profit:
PROFIT = (AE* FINAL POT) - (CALL PEF + CALL POF)
PROFIT = 0,574 * 51,54 - 23,37 = $ 6,21

EV = (PROFIT * CALL%) + ($FOLD * FOLD%) and $fold = -$call pef
EV = (6,21 * 0,415) + (-4,80 * 0,585)
EV = 2,58 - 2,81
EV = - 0,23 ~ -1bb, right?

So, when you 3bet fold your move is: -940bb/100
When you 3bet and call 4bet your move is: -1032bb/100

So, if you think that his range is only AA, or AA 97% of the time, it's fold!

I hope you like it!

TKS MAN!!!!