What is theoretical best sizing on river?
Posted by Zachary Freeman
Posted by Zachary Freeman posted in High Stakes
What is theoretical best sizing on river?
Live Deep $5/$5 w/ $10 Rock. Rock is a forced straddle by winner of last pot. Hero has the rock this hand in the CO. $3k effective.
Btn is Limon well known veteran live pro. Btn limps, a couple more limps nad Hero checks option on CO with
9c8c4s5d
Flop Qc 3d 6h. Checks all the way through.
Turn. Jc. Hero picks up a FD and a gutter to go with the flopped OESD.
Hero bets pot $70, Btn raises to 200 total.
I could 3bet turn but not interested in discussing that. Hero calls. I assume LImon's range is some J's up, set of JJ, occasional QJ (although I think he bets flop nearly always with QX), and some draws.
I planned to x/decide flushes and lead a T and bluff an 8 or 9 probably. I'd cr a 2 or 7.
River 2d.
I check and Btn pots it for $470. What is my theoretical best sizing?
Part of me felt that I should be c/r pot because I have a polarized range of only the nuts for value and by going large I can maximize the number of bluffs I have here.
Other part of me felt that I should go smaller because, his range is not all bluff catchers. He can have the nuts here so my bluffs should be on the cheaper side. Also, if I choose to bluff (I'm not sure how often I should be here) some of the hands I'm targeting to fold are his own missed draws given all of his J's up are checking back river and his only worse value range on river is JJJ. Vs a range of missed draws and JJJ Id probably be best off going small because he is never calling with missed draws. But perhaps a pot c/r will fold out his entire range enough?
Perhaps somebody better than I in the sizing theory and provide some input.
Thanks
Zach
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