What are the reasons for betting or checking here?

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What are the reasons for betting or checking here?

Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (4 Players) CO: $200.00 (Hero)
BN: $215.60
SB: $313.35
BB: $666.57
Preflop ($3.00) Hero is CO with 8 K A J
Hero raises to $7.00, BN folds, SB calls $6.00, BB calls $5.00
Flop ($21.00) K 8 4
SB bets $14.96, BB folds, Hero calls $14.96
Turn ($50.92) K 8 4 3
SB checks, Hero bets $36.69, SB raises to $148.00, Hero raises to $178.04 and is all in, SB calls $30.04

So this hand looks standard at first glance, however, it got me thinking. First of all, given that the opponent led such a dry board into two opponents and overcalled an open raise from the SB, his range should contain quite some KK combos. I also have trouble finding many draws in his flop leading range.

Now, when he checks the turn to us, how should we structure our betting and checking range? I guess we do have better hands than just naked top two, so should we be checking the weaker part of our range? At the same time, I feel like the weak top two pairs need protection so they want to bet more often? At the same time, protection against what? There are not as many wraps in our opponent's range I guess?

So basically, I am trying to figure out if there is anything else we should do in a somewhat standard spot to increase or ev.

3 Comments

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Nick Johnson 6 years, 1 month ago

I think calling the flop is pretty standard. I don't believe we are raising too much OTF, but when he checks to us on the turn I think we aren't betting too often overall from what I have studied in this spot. Something like 66%-70% checking range and with K8 I do think it's a pretty close to an even mix. I think we are betting almost all top set combos and mixing anything that is generally worse like 44 and K8. What's interesting is in this type of spot from what I recall I think we actually bet more bottom set than middle set by a good margin, but I will need to double check my sims. Our bluffs OTT I think are going to be a lot of SD's and some FD's that especially lack SDV (likely a decent amount of 8X combos), but like I said overall we aren't betting too much in theory OTT and in practice he may be a little more unbalanced towards value with that flop leading range as I don't think players lead that spot as often as they are actually supposed to and don't tend to balance it correctly.

Nick Johnson 6 years, 1 month ago

I did run a HU sim for this spot just to see if I was way off on the thought/memory. 44 and 33 were being bet more often. I agree that middle set is of course bet more often in most spots.

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