wet bord, Top Set, waitin' for a blank

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wet bord, Top Set, waitin' for a blank

HJ: 36.25
CO: 19.05
BN: 27.48
SB: 74.02 (Hero)
BB: 41.23
UTG: 19.24
Preflop (0.35) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 3 K 5 K
UTG raises to 0.85, HJ calls 0.85, CO calls 0.85, BN folds, Hero calls 0.75, BB calls 0.60
Flop (4.25) 9 8 K (5 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets 3.25, UTG calls 3.25, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero calls 3.25
Turn (14) 9 8 K 7 (3 Players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets 13.25, Hero folds

BB, HJ,CO  are loose-aggressive with VPIP 55+. UTG us 78\15 aggr 22\21\11 wtsd 32

decided to go for c/r as pretty often gonna get a bet from someone

bu as it was 150bb Big blind (50\19,wtsd 38, 50\37\29aggr) decided to wait for black (too many scary turns)

if it comes 2s - regularly I have to lead? potting would be fine? or c/shove is more standard. have no idea how to get know how often BB would continue betting here (as he's mostly drawing)

31 Comments

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Tom Coldwell 11 years, 10 months ago

I don't like this as you give hands like K9 and 99 a chance to lose less money on scary turns. I'd just check/pot to $17.25 (I think that's correct) and jam most every turn card - you're not so deep that this is gonna be a problem (you will have nearly half effective stacks in if BB calls).

If you had a lower set this would be a more interesting play, but with top set it's too much of a risk imo, especially against loose idiots who are more likely than most to call with stupid s*** here. As a general rule, when top set is the nuts on a wet board you're better off putting the money in than getting tricky.

jonna102 11 years, 10 months ago

I think you'll want to lead the flop here.  It's a 4-way pot, and you're blocking hands like top 2 pair.  You're not that likely to see anyone betting light here, so just lead out yourself imo.  You certainly don't want to give away any free cards here.

If anyone has anything strong you're likely to get raised, which is ideal for you in this case since you can just get it in and avoid having to play turns and rivers oop.

As played, I think you're getting too fancy.  Just make it as big as you can while you still have the best hand.

ZenFish 11 years, 10 months ago

Don't slowplay top set in a multiway pot that the opposition expresses interest in. There are spots to slowplay the nuts, but this is not one. You are obviously never unhappy getting it in with nut top set (lower sets is a totally different story), and when your c/r gets called you have at least half the effective stack in (depending on who calls). That means potting any turn is at worst a small mistake (which you may or may not want to improve on by checking some turns).

If you check this flop, it should be to check-raise and shovel as much money in as you can. Leading is of course also fine, and maybe preferable (you don't offer a free card and can get the option to 3-bet). But if you think someone will bet, go for the c/r.


Aleksandra ZenFish 11 years, 10 months ago

... im gonna disagree on top set on drawy board play in fewway pot

Its fewway pot , noone will fold a draw, draws will out many times, and i think more money can be made by reraise  or raise on turn if draw doesnt out ( draw s percentage to out lowers twice ) and saves some money when draw outs, and additionally allows us to try get boat at decent price, so i prefer turn raises for top sets on draw boards

I know it loses some value, but i think more is gained by pushing blank turns


ZenFish 11 years, 10 months ago

The best scenario for nut top set on a drawy board in a multiway pot is to get the money in on the flop. The beauty of nut top set is that 1) it's the best hand now, and 2) it has a 10 out redraw to a boat/quads if the turn comes bad.

These things makes top set insanely strong vs multiway flop action. When this happens you should rejoice and shovel in the money!

Aleksandra ZenFish 11 years, 10 months ago

i sometimes do, sometimes not, if ppl start raises and reraises and gets back to me i for sure will get it in,  i think both options have goodsides , i just think its so much stronger on turns

jonna102 11 years, 10 months ago

There are times for slow playing top set, yes, but that will generally be on more static boards and with fewer players in the pot.  When it's multiway and the pot is already big, just get the money in and run to the bank  :)

Aleksandra ZenFish 11 years, 10 months ago

To add, ppl pay off huge with solid hands in end  if board comes that your set holds , because they cant put  a read that you had top set on flop on drawy board that you didnt raise

Tom Coldwell 11 years, 10 months ago
Yes. But on the flip side, those times it comes kinda bad you lose the chance to stack weaker made hands which you coulda gotten it in >90% against on the flop. This really is a terrible hand to slow play (as top set usually is).


Aleksandra ZenFish 11 years, 10 months ago

If I have a top set I really would like max value for it, and tho it is a plus EV to shove it, its not significant at all, 

for example

http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=KsTs7h&g=oh&h1=KK%2A%2A&h2=AsQsJ9&s=generic

i dont think flipping my high set has value i want to gain from my top set

jonna102 11 years, 10 months ago

Lol, well top set is not going to be up against that monster of a draw every time  :-)

Usually you will be up against weakish draws or two pair or lower sets, all of which you want to get it in against.  Every once in a long while, you will be up against a draw that has you slightly badly flipping.  But that's fine, if you're either crushing, doing very well or occasionally flipping, then getting the money in is a good thing.

But ok, let's say we flat the flop and slow play.  What do we do on the turn?  Any club is a potentially bad card for you.  Any non board pairing card 5 or higher (except ace) is a potentially bad card for you.  Any board pairing card is also a bad card for you, because it's probably an action killer.  And even off suit A/2/3/4's are bad, because they kill the equity of draws, and good players will have to fold most draws to a sizeable bet.

So essentially all turn cards are bad for your hand one way or another.  However, when we put in a raise on the flop, there will be hands that happily get it in that we crush -- and some other hands that are not so happy but are "priced in to call".  (or may at least be perceived to be)  

Add to all this that we're playing from the small blind.  It's the worst position of the table because:

* It's hard to get value when we have the best hand

* It's hard to realize our equity when we're drawing

From the small blind you're totally happy to get the money in early in the hand if you have a good made hand or draw.  This way you don't have to worry about playing later streets, and you're guaranteed to realize the equity of your hand.

Notice well that I didn't mention anything about smelly princesses.  ;-)

Aleksandra ZenFish 11 years, 10 months ago

AAAAAAAAGh my dog is NOT smelly !!! as one 

as 2~ i know there re downsides but being a good player means manage through postflop play on various streets as well, i dont wanna do easier thing just cause its easier and i wont have headache decisions after, i want more value ( PS~ being a good player~ i wasnt reffering i am one, but thats what i wanna try to become, and i dont think u gonna get there easy ways and shortcuts :P


jonna102 11 years, 10 months ago

If two options are of similar value, then choosing the one that causes you to make the fewest mistakes must be better.  Mistakes in poker is how you make money.  When they make mistakes you win, when you make mistakes they win.

So maybe you can explain to me the value of calling the flop bet and then having to fold the 7c turn card?  It's likely to be a good fold, no question about that.  But we're also folding out around 20% equity in a pot that's getting quite big.  That's not a very happy situation.  $3 of the pot at the turn is yours, but you can't get it because the UTG is betting you out of the pot.  This ends up losing you a lot of value, and I can't see how you can make up for it when (say) the 3d hits.

Good players can navigate difficult spots, but very often they will avoid putting themselves in difficult spots if they can.  That's what makes them good.

Aleksandra ZenFish 11 years, 10 months ago

i cant do the complicated per street value EV comaration, 

yes everyone would avoid difficult spot, but point is to maximise gain, and i think i can gain more with my top set then 50 percent flip....

Aleksandra ZenFish 11 years, 10 months ago

if someone could do maths for different ev values in diff turn rvr ( including what we gain out of folding, what we gain when we get there outcomes compared to flippin  flop would be nice

Tom Coldwell 11 years, 10 months ago

Okay, you wanna know exactly how damned hard we crush potential ranges here, allow me:

Against a very tight range that continues of (99, 88, QJT:cc, KQJ9, KQT9, KJT9, K9:cc):50%, we are 77%. If we add in nut clubs, we are 71%. Given he probably puts it in w/ some of his nut club draws, we probably fall somewhere in between those two figures. You will note that I'm giving him credit for hero-folding naked top two here.

Even if we expand his range in a way that is unfavorable to us by adding in every combo draw from T7:cc upwards, every nut flush draw, and every wrap from T76 upwards whilst continuing to exclude naked top two, we are still 65% and destroying him.

There is simply no conceivable range here against which you are worse than 65% and in reality you could have in excess of 70% equity. Not stacking off here is wrong. Plain and simple.

Aleksandra ZenFish 11 years, 10 months ago

:) Thank you Tom , but its standard play option and play line everyone is taking

I just am interested not in play simulation of what everyone play line is, but other play option

For example, we check the flop and get on turn * we didnt stack off with reraise ) and we  now :

see certain number of cards that are lets say safe for us and go for check raise, and how much does that improve our equity versus stacking off on flop ( double?)

see certain number of flush  and str8 cards that opponent  raises for value ( unsuspecting set in hand ,so we get decent price to see rvr and look for paired board in which case we can gain some value in certain percentage or 

opponent pot bets so we jus fold, last 2 cases of folding minimise our loss for certain ammount ( unlike stacking of ) and safe cards maximise our gain 

so i wondered what would be exact and overoll EV of that ...is it bigger then standard get it in?

im arguing cause i DONT know and  everyone is against play line i suggested, but noone actually knows or shows EV for that ( EV of stacking of being undoubdedly positive..but other option .. beside saying standard  i d like to know does it have its merits  in term of numbers, or im just plain wrong


ZenFish 11 years, 10 months ago

Think simpler. When you have the option to stack off on the flop in a guaranteed very +EV spot, just take it. This is particularly important in bloated, multiway pots (the bigger the pot, the more happy you are to win it right now, and the more opponents, the worse it is to offer free cards).

When you're out of position, it's super-particularly important to get the money in with guaranteed +EV when given the chance, since otherwise you risk making big mistakes on future streets in addition to the immediate value you're giving up by slowplaying.

For contrast, a good spot to slowplay the nuts would be if you call a BTN raise in the BB and flop a dry nut straight with no redraws on a 8s Jh Qh flop. Now it makes sense to check-call flop and await a safe turn, especially if you're playing deep.

The reasons being that 1) you risk getting freerolled hard if the money gets in on the flop (he could have the same straight + redraws, or a favorite monster draw), 2) if you check-raise and get called, you'll have to make difficult big-pot decisions OOP on many turn cards, and 3) check-calling dry nuts balances your c/c range so that you are able to show up with the nuts on dry turn/river cards also after playing passively.

Make sure you understand the difference between "good nuts" and "bad nuts". Top set on a non-straight/non-flush board is always good nuts, since we have the best hand now + redraws against other draws. On the other hand, a naked nut straight can be bad nuts that can cost you money, especially multiway in small pots . Now there is a significant probability of strong hands being out against you, and the risk/reward ratio is poor.

With bad nuts OOP with a high stack/pot ratio it makes sense to play the flop cautiously and delay aggression until you have seen how the other players react to the flop + you have seen a safe turn card.  But HU in big pots, you don't care as much about redraws (for example, flopping a dry nut straight HU in a 3B pot is a very good situation).


Phil Galfond 11 years, 10 months ago

This is a clear x/r as people have said, and I think potting it is best, since I don't have a x/r-fold range on these boards anyways.

Not stacking K9+ is a disaster.  Allowing weak draws to hit in an already decent sized pot is not great.  Everything else the guys said :)

One very important point that I didn't see mentioned:

This is a 3way pot on a draw heavy board, which means that a turn bet from either of our opponents (on a blank) both: 

a) will get x/r'd often, and
b) will rarely get two folds

This means that our opponents will likely never bluff with low equity, and will often check back decent equity that can't call a x/r for fear of being blown off their hand.  

In addition to all of the benefits of raising flop, we've now lost the major benefit of slowplaying - getting them to bet lots of turns and rivers with worse.

Most of the hands you'll stack on a brick turn are the same hands you'd have stacked on the flop (and still with excellent equity).  The hands you want to "wait for a safe turn against" such as wrap+fd, nfd+pair, etc may not even bet the turn, so you're giving two hands two free cards on a very draw heavy board.


Aleksandra ZenFish 11 years, 10 months ago

its just a simplest play spot everyone has daccordance and yet i got to ask so many questions, i dont have habit to accept things just because everyone said even if they re right until i understand it well, which is not great habit of newbie or begginer ( i would be slightly annoyed if i were to explain , and would tell person just accept it and question it when u get profficiency, advise i cant follow up myself ) because same question  will go through my head all the time while i play and i cant get rid of it

Thank you , understood it now

jonna102 11 years, 10 months ago

Hey, just keep asking.  (and I will do the same)  By asking questions we learn, and by answering questions we also learn.  I think that's what we're all here for, right?  Questions about (seemingly) simple and basic concepts are usually the most important, because they influence such a large part of the game.  And as the game changes, even the best players will need to go back and review fundamentals every now and then.

And as you noticed, I didn't agree with most here about the x/r play.  I'd often lead here, but that's basically because I think this flop gets checked through too often at these stakes.  I'd say it's pretty close between leading and x/r though, and the main point is that you want to put as much money into the pot as quickly as possible -- whichever way that is best achieved.

the3shells 11 years, 10 months ago

I liked that you pressed for more explanation!  I am a beginner too, and I have been spending time thinking about when it is or isn't right to slowplay big hands.  This ended up I think being a play that more experienced players had a strong understanding of--and the explanation you got helped me too!

bogglor 11 years, 10 months ago

I don't think you can go too wrong by leading - C/R is obviously the "optimal" play if you have opponents who are willing to comply with you and bet.  With 2 passive players left to act in the hand, I'd always err on the side of betting.  With 2 aggressive players, I'd always go for the C/R.  

One of the key things that I think comes from this discussion is the fact that even when you C/R top set and get called and the turn completes a draw, it's OK to just get it in here given stacks.  To continue the evolution of the discussion, at what stack depth it is NOT okay to just shove the money in on any turn card?  Obviously this is just a straight math question but I'll ask it anyway. 

I think too often what happens to me when in this spot is that I'm playing 8 tables, I C/R the flop and get about 40-50% of my stack in, then the turn completes a draw against 2-3 other opponents and a defeatist attitude of "well, I'm cooked" sets in and then I just kind of C/F weakly because it's "safe" and too hard to keep up with the other tables and work out the math in the moment.  

jonna102 11 years, 10 months ago

Well, it's essentially a pot odds question.  You need something like 4.5:1 to get it in.  My guideline is essentially 1/2 pot bet is ok, or slightly more if I think I have implied odds.  If it gets in 3-way it's slightly different obviously.

I think it's safe to assume that noone is really bluffing in that spot though, so I don't think you're usually getting owned if you fold when you're not getting the odds to play.

Aleksandra ZenFish 11 years, 10 months ago

it is always something that we miss out of big picture and puzzles us, in my case now after all ppl posted, the point where my brain got confused ws i wrongly assumed the turn would go...bet bet call and checkraise by me,  ( and that gave me idea ill get 1 free card, save for all the times draw hit and get bigger value when it missed )

But when Phil said :

hands you want to "wait for a safe turn against" such as wrap+fd, nfd+pair, etc may not even bet the turn, so you're giving two hands two free cards on a very draw heavy board.

i realised that draws will actually take another free card ( unlike my wrong assumption of bet bet and me checkraise as it would suit me best ) and i wont be able to gain value at all out of draw hands, and to top it blow my own hand by being likely outdrawn often because any bet i make on turn would give any draw correct odds to call ( since i failed to make big pot and sufficient pressure for some hands to fold out on turn )I think this was very ellaborate thread on common spot that will help us all :) so once more thank you everyone


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