I don't think betting smaller affects hard on their calling\shoving ranges.

after all I would not expect anything but 3 here too often. BTN is full stack and opens w\ pot size (not for minraise, not limping) - the only info we have and its more likely to indicate him as a regular. would be a bit tougher in HU, 3way people don't go crazy that often

sometimes its wrap or as you said spazz w\ gutter +OP or so, but I'm ok with the way you played.

nh

I agree with JG, people don't bluff raise often just because you bet small.  If he's a reg, he probably can expect you to bet small with your ~entire range, including AA/KK, and he should know he can't rep much by raising.  Move up the cards by a few ranks, then it becomes a bit different (776r for example hits his flatting range a lot harder).

That said, I still don't mind betting a bit big because I think we will get at least one call from his overpairs, and he will fold other hands anyway, regardless of how much you bet.  As played folding seems prudent, I just don't think this is a spot where he bluffs a ton.  Well played imo.

Well played and solid of you to run the sims right after. You can go slightly smaller here and bet 7 IMO.

I find this spot very interesting.

Vilain opens OTB so his range is very wide and contains more 3s that if he had opened from an earlier position. We, on the other hand, almost never have trips + on this board.

I have trouble deciding whether holding 46 is a good (more equity vs 3XXX) or bad (we block 456X combos).

I believe I'm okay with folding w/ KKXX and calling w/ AAXX (gives us a calling range and vilain can show up with KKXX in additions to 456X, 45+overpair type of hands).