Villain makes a big river bet but has a capped range
Posted by plac730
Posted by
plac730
posted in
Mid Stakes
Villain makes a big river bet but has a capped range
BN: $184.43
SB: $255.03 (Hero)
BB: $210.23
UTG: $200
HJ: $39.25
CO: $203.78
SB: $255.03 (Hero)
BB: $210.23
UTG: $200
HJ: $39.25
CO: $203.78
Villain is a TAG reg playing 22/15/8
Preflop
($3.00)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
Q
T
8
T
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $5, BN calls $5, Hero calls $4, BB folds
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $5, BN calls $5, Hero calls $4, BB folds
Flop
($17.00)
Q
6
9
(3 Players)
Hero checks,
CO checks,
BN checks
Plan was to c/c and lead when we hit our straight or any card that makes our TT blockers relevant.
Turn
($17.00)
Q
6
9
2
(3 Players)
Hero bets $12,
CO calls $12,
BN folds
Leading for protection/semibluff, should have bet slightly larger because of the draw heavy nature of the board though.
River
($41.00)
Q
6
9
2
9
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
CO bets $32,
Hero calls $32
I don't see any value in betting this river, so I check. Once he bets large i could see arguments for all options.
Raise: He never has QQ or Q9 after checking back the flop. 96 often has sidecards that are connected enough to have straight draws on the flop and are betting also. We have a Q blocker as well. We could be checking QQ or Q9 on this river to induce a bluff from a missed draw which a lot of his turn range will consist of.
Fold: He is a TAG reg and probably knows the 9 isn't a great card to bluff, thus weighting his river bet towards value. He may think that we would bet the river ourselves with our boats and likely won't give us credit if we decide to c/r.
Call: His river sizing is large and indicative of a polarized range. Our Q is beating all his missed draws and c/r bluffing him off 9xxx is somewhat ambitious.
Raise: He never has QQ or Q9 after checking back the flop. 96 often has sidecards that are connected enough to have straight draws on the flop and are betting also. We have a Q blocker as well. We could be checking QQ or Q9 on this river to induce a bluff from a missed draw which a lot of his turn range will consist of.
Fold: He is a TAG reg and probably knows the 9 isn't a great card to bluff, thus weighting his river bet towards value. He may think that we would bet the river ourselves with our boats and likely won't give us credit if we decide to c/r.
Call: His river sizing is large and indicative of a polarized range. Our Q is beating all his missed draws and c/r bluffing him off 9xxx is somewhat ambitious.
Final Pot
CO has
9
8
5
4
CO
wins $102.20
As you can see I ended up calling but was wondering if I should have c/r'ed or folded instead. Do you think a c/r would work in my spot? What would you do here and why?
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