variance, confidence, +ev edges, stack sizes ... when to quit ?
Posted by analihilator
Posted by analihilator posted in Low Stakes
variance, confidence, +ev edges, stack sizes ... when to quit ?
i am struggling to find an effective approach to deciding when to conclude a (winning) zoom session.
i have no trouble grinding it out all day to break even after starting with an under-expectation run. if i do get tilted, i have no trouble quitting for the day down x buy ins.
but when i am winning, the reasons to keep playing are always very concrete: i am confident, i am deep stacked and able to win big pots/intimidate opponents, i'm booking volume, i have an edge and i'm not tilted so i keep playing, right ?
...until i hit that under expectation run, get tilted and drop off half of my profit for the day or more. which seems to be the only time i ever actually quit, which means i never manage to book those big wins for the day, and means i experience a subtle form of meta tilt from constantly hitting these peaks then falling off again as a daily cycle.
lately i have just been trying to take my luck and run away with it: once i am deep stacked and have booked a decent profit for the day, i wait until i hit some redraw or other such over-expectation bonanza, then sit out.
any thoughts ? anything i can do other than just try to wing it and strike some never-quite-perfect compromise ?
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