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value bet 225BB deep

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

value bet 225BB deep

SB: $179.19
BB: $400
CO: $900.14
BN: $941.71 (Hero)
Preflop ($6.00) (4 Players)
Hero was dealt A 4 7 6
CO raises to $12, Hero raises to $42, SB folds, BB folds, CO calls $30
Flop ($90.00) 3 6 8 (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero bets $72, CO calls $72
Turn ($234.00) 3 6 8 Q (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero bets $182, CO calls $182
River ($598.00) 3 6 8 Q 6 (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero bets $448, CO raises to $604.14, and is all in, Hero calls $156.14
Final Pot
CO has Q T Q K CO wins $1804.78

14 Comments

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OMGphilgalfond 12 years, 3 months ago
hmm how do i hide results?
what do you guys think of the river bet and if you agree would choose a different sizing?

I bet because of two reasons because i think villains turn calling range (after c/c flop) consists mostly (or only?) out of good flushes and second because i have a 6.

villain is reg on the tighter but not a nit :-)


Nakamator 12 years, 3 months ago
I like your sizing on all streets (maybe except turn but I think its personal) but I usually tend to manage them according to some of villains stats, specifically WTSD stats.

If he has like a WTSD of 26% on a decent sample size, I would go for a smaller size on the river because I would expect him to make more of hero folds. If he sits around the 30% area, I would definitely go that big otr because he will have a significantly harder time to fold from my experience with these stats.

As I said, I usually go smaller on this turn because most of the time when you bet this turn you are already, more often, polarized. Whenever its the case I tend to go smaller to be able to balance it more optimally in future spots.
riverboatking 12 years, 3 months ago
i like your play and thinks its a pretty std vb. he shouldn't have many boats in his range and his hand screams of Khi/Qhi clubs. he literally has one of the only hands that can boat up so just unlucky imo.
riverboatking 12 years, 3 months ago
on second thought i might bet like $302 n fold to a shove. unless ur playing god don't think you have to worry about EVER getting CR bluffed n you might get slightly more calls with that sizing. dunno.
Lono 12 years, 3 months ago
He could just bet the same size that he went for and still fold to the x/r. I don't know that this is a spot where a slightly smaller sizing is going to widen his calling range enough to make that play. He might as well bet slightly larger because it could still be perceived as a bluff for sure and won't change the range of (mostly flushes) hands that still clicks call. Getting x/r though I'd really need to have a good reason to call here because I'm pretty sure we're toast. I wish he hadn't shown the results lol.
Nakamator 12 years, 3 months ago
i agree with RBK... People need to be really spazzy to come up with a bluff here. And if thats the case you can bet call. But if you dont have that kind of read cant see how bet folding is bad. I really doubt its possible to come up with a profitable XR range by any reg given that line. As I said, need to be a very spazzy one imo. .

Didnt make any comments on river but I like that size. Looks very suspicious betting all streets here specially on that river.
bingerminn 12 years, 3 months ago
I think your hand looks slightly more bluffy when the board pairs river and you still bet on the larger side. You have the six and he has a lot of worse flushes in his range.

Phil Galfond 12 years, 3 months ago
Agreed w/ RBK and Abu. Gotta go for value here, and I'd expect you to get called by worse much more often than raised by better. Unlucky.
cAp217 12 years, 3 months ago
River is a $225 bet for me and I guess fold to a shove? When you bet that amount on the river and he shoves we are always calling. Its a shame bc we would have gotten paid on the river with any other club...

I want to ask this. If the river is the 2c. What are we betting here? With villian having the Kc/tc and the Qc being out, I am curious to know what you think.
phil long 12 years, 3 months ago
Bet folding is really expolitable but vs a lot of opponents at mid stakes its still the play cos even though their bluffing freq has to be low for it to be a bet call once you have bet the river and only have to call so little more. For some people their actual frequency is just above 0 which still makes it a fold
anchordraw 12 years, 3 months ago
I almost always check behind on the river with the board pairing. I agree I'm missing a value bet over 60% of the time maybe more but CO had $296 in the pot and got paid $604 more with the large value bet pot committing you to call the shove. It's almost QQxx or King High flush for CO. CO would raise on flop with 88xx, and can't have 66xx. Also hard to image CO calling $42 preflop with 33xx. So I guess I see why you went for value.

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