Unsure about turn spot
Posted by SalmonShorts
Posted by
SalmonShorts
posted in
Low Stakes
Unsure about turn spot
ACR deleted my hand history so writing it from memory, but unsure about a spot on the turn:
Villain - CO, 120bb
BU - ???bb, folds flop doesn’t matter
SB - 36bb
Hero - BB, 200bb
Limp / limp / limp to hero who checks w/ AQ98 all clubs
Flop (4bb) - Kc8h2c
Villain checks, SB bets 4bb (31bb remaining), hero calls, villain calls, BU folds
Turn (16bb) - Jd, so no BDFD
Villain checks, SB bets 16bb (15bb remaining), hero flats, villain raises to ~80bb. SB calls all-in. Hero?
In the moment I called, figuring I have no fold equity to raise (given SPR) and I can fold missed rivers. One pair, gutshot, nut flush draw seems good enough to go with, even if I'm blocking myself.
Looking back that seems bad, but I don't really have a reason why. A lot of the outs are self-blocked or no good (two-pair and 8x likely lose to sets, Jc pairs board).
Any thoughts?
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We need to practice more on counting outs. OTT we are drawing to clubs and T. Can't really see how the 8 gives us best hand against two villains, let alone other two pairs. So we have 4 clubs, board has 2. Jc is probably not good so we should not count it. So we are left with 6 good clubs and 3 T = 9 good outs. However, we could discount further the clubs because two people are happy on the flop. They likely have some clubs in their hands. So we probably needs to take another 2 to 4 clubs away. That leaves us 5 to 7 adjusted outs. The rest is a math problem whether we have enough equity to call on the turn. Very little stack left so implied odds on CO doesn't matter.
Thanks for the reply. I figured as much there, I think with the outs I have it'd be probably somewhere in the 15% equity range, and I'm getting (if you include the rest of the guy's stack) something like 2.5:1, unless I'm mistaken. Definite fold. Thanks.
...why are we calling flop?
I figured pair + NFD + backdoors were enough to call one street. Only hands that are crazy ahead are K8, 88 and 22 (ruled out KK due to limped pot / player pool), we have blocker against K8 and 88.
Ruling out KK was apparently wrong since we ran into exactly that hand, but given the way everyone was playing (and general assumptions about the 5PLO player pool) I had ruled it out at the time.
What's your reasoning behind a fold?
I misread the flop; I thought it was rainbow.
I still think it's a low EV call at best, but I'm not particularly animated about it.
you know the pool, so if thats really the case then thats okay, but i highly doubt that assumption. In fact, i think quite the opposite is true. A bunch of recreationals dont raise even strong KKxx. So if i played the hand versus unknowns i would even highly assume that a big part of villains range is KKxx there.
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