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Unorthadox Line Deep with AAxx in 4bet Pot

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Posted by posted in High Stakes

Unorthadox Line Deep with AAxx in 4bet Pot

I took a line that was non standard and my question to consider is not if its +ev yet is it more +ev than jamming flop.

Firstly: The game is Live Deep 5/10 PLO. Effective Stacks for the hand are $3000

Villain is extremely loose PF, mostly calls. Stats would maybe be 75/25/12 with the 3bet freq being based on mood just as much as hand value. 

4 handed. Hero raises $40 with AsAc7s3c, Villian in BB 3bets to $130, Hero 4bets to $400, Villain calls. Pot $800

Flop Qs8c3d Villain pots for $800 with $1800 back. On turn pot will be $2400 and his jam will be offering me 2.3to1; I will need 30% equity to call off.

Postflop in 3bet pots Ive seen him donk pot weak with PR+kickers, PR+GS, wraps, etc. Basically, his leading range is wide enough such that jamming flop> folding flop.

I knew I could jam profitably, but I instead chose to call and fold specifically on red (T,9,J) turns. I was confident that he would be jamming all turns except probably an A. My thought was that on a red T,9,J his PR+kickers, and pr+straight draw hands would improve such that Id be too far behind his range to call turn.

Do you think this line adds EV or do you think I still have too much equity to be folding those turns given sometimes the J,T,9 just give him draws that I should be still getting it in with?




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