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turned nuts 3b pot, rivered bluff catcher facing river donk

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

turned nuts 3b pot, rivered bluff catcher facing river donk

http://wt.ag/1jReHCc


villain is a 27/18 AF 3,2 3b 7,8. 3bets me 9% here sb vs btn over a very large sample. he seemed a little more aggro than he normally is today. i rarely pay him off bc he just seems tight and straight forward most of the time but i have a note that he is actually capable of taking this line as a bluff. i havent seen him do it vs me before, he has taken the cc turn str8 hits donk river flush hits/board pairs-line vs others in SRP and 3b pots.

villain views me as a TAG, on the tighter side. i dont know if he thinks i will fold a straight here but he almost def thinks i will fold everything else. 

ran some Oracle simulations...



this would be the equities if im right about his range, how he plays his blockers and IF he bluffs 100% of them otr. one is obv more optimistic than the other.

standard call? hero fold? is it so close that i want to be balanced and try to figure out my range here and make sure im not over-folding?

any comment is appreciated....thx!


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