Turn spot vs fish
Posted by Mynttis
Posted by
Mynttis
posted in
Low Stakes
Turn spot vs fish
CO: $114.85
BN: $107.13
SB: $146.53
BB: $50 (Hero)
BN: $107.13
SB: $146.53
BB: $50 (Hero)
Preflop
($0.75)
(4 Players)
Hero was dealt
7
K
J
Q
CO folds, BN calls $0.50, SB folds, Hero raises to $1.75, BN calls $1.25
CO folds, BN calls $0.50, SB folds, Hero raises to $1.75, BN calls $1.25
Flop
($4.25)
2
Q
T
(2 Players)
Hero bets $2.50,
BN calls $2.50
Turn
($9.25)
8
(2 Players)
Btn is 56% vpip fish.
What things I should consider when I'm thinking should I bet turn or not?
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What things I should consider when I'm thinking should I bet turn or not?
Whether he will raise you light often or not. And whether he will stab light when checked to.
- How often he folds
- How often he calls, and with what
- How often he raises, and with what
- What he will do if you check
- How he will play the river after calling
In general, the more passive a player is, the less you suffer from betting when you shouldn't, since he won't pounce on those mistakes. On the other hand, passive players also give you free cards when they shouldn't, and you can exploit them by keeping the pot small until you make a good hand (also known as: bluff less).
Passive players tend to not punish your small mistakes, that's basically it.
So if I think he won't raise light, I can easily barrel and fold to raise. What about if I think he will stab alot when checked to? Still better to bet than check -call?
Barreling your good-but-not-great hands isn't necessarily best, even against those who rarely raise. If you think he often has you beat on the board in question, and won't fold, that gives you more reason to check and play a (on average) smaller pot.
To put it in more formal terms:
If you think he often has good equity that will rarely fold incorrectly, you have incentive to check your medium strong hands, that's a good starting point. Even if a bet isn't likely to get you in trouble, playing a smaller pot could be better.
If he stabs frequently, you of course call happily and then play the river. If he rarely bets worse hands, you have worse equity when you call, but now you also have better implied odds. Figuring out the pot odds + implied odds + best river strategy isn't hard when you have a good idea about his range and tendencies.
I don't know what's the maximum +EV line for this particular spot against this particular player, but those are sound principles to start with. You should also think about how often you continue after a check. If you always bet your decent-to-great hands and only check your worst hands, you make it easy for him to steal after you check.
Maybe he will exploit it, maybe he won't, but it's good to aim for some balance regardless. So you want to make sure you check some hands that can c/r or c/c. The medium strong hands that have equity but don't want to stack off are obvious candidates for check-calling.
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