Turn Options 3w srp

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Turn Options 3w srp

Blinds: $2.50/$5.00 (6 Players) BN: $538.01
SB: $720.50
BB: $557.20 (Hero)
UTG: $2024.65
MP: $472.20
CO: $3155.26
Preflop ($7.50) Hero is BB with 8 J Q T
3 folds, BN raises to $17.50, SB calls $15.00, Hero calls $12.50
Flop ($52.50) 2 5 T
SB checks, Hero checks, BN checks
Turn ($52.50) 2 5 T 8
SB bets $50.14, Hero raises to $200.56, BN folds, SB raises to $651.82, Hero calls $339.14 and is all in

Reads: BTN unknow, guess is rec player, SB is presumed reg with low 3b numbers.

I think we have 3 options on the turn here
i) call
ii) raise small and call it off
iii) pot and call it off

The situation as I see it:
SB is not pure bluffing with this size, and rarely has a weak semi-bluff given his pot sizing.
- vs sets we are almost dead
- vs awesome draws we are flipping
- vs good draws we are pushing a bit of equity (55-65% if I had to guess)
Given he flatted in the SB I think we can discount almost all sets.
Given he flatted in the SB I think he very often has a FD and something to go along with it

As I write this it is pretty clear to me know that calling is the best play.
- we can save money on the river if has the non nut flush and it hits
- he will bluff often on bricks as our range contains a lot of draws/weak bluff catchers
- vs a GII range ott we are not doing great
- only downside really is letting BTN come along and take our position and realize his equity.

Interested to hear (or read) your thoughts

4 Comments

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superT 9 years, 5 months ago

With no fold equity you would need about 48% eq to raise/gii on the turn. Against a continuing range you seem to have somewhere around 45-50% eq hot and cold, but effectively less than that since he's not jamming everything he continues with but will instead flat and play river with some hands which ofc reduces your EV by quite a lot.

This means that when you raise and he doesn't fold, you're at best breaking even and at worst losing a decent amount relative to the pot (SPR is so high that stacking off with a couple % too little eq is pretty expensive), so the money you'll make on the raise comes from fold equity. Like you said it seems unlikely that you'll have very high feq after he pots it. Haven't looked at the numbers very hard but with meh fold eq raising seems marginally +EV but not a spectacular play. Calling on the other hand seems intuitively very +EV so I think that's indeed the best line.

RayAllen34 9 years, 5 months ago

i dont like i(call) because it will give odds to call for BU when he has FD or wraps and we need lots of protection here.

i don't like ii(raising small) because it still gives odds to call for SB with anything vs our range. but I like this option when we have good wrap+NFD and stuff.

also i think he has more draws than sets because we block 88/TT and SB's calling range vs BU open does not include many 22/55 if he's a reg.

I like pot/call.

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