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Turn Options 3w srp

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Turn Options 3w srp

Blinds: $2.50/$5.00 (6 Players) BN: $538.01
SB: $720.50
BB: $557.20 (Hero)
UTG: $2024.65
MP: $472.20
CO: $3155.26
Preflop ($7.50) Hero is BB with 8 J Q T
3 folds, BN raises to $17.50, SB calls $15.00, Hero calls $12.50
Flop ($52.50) 2 5 T
SB checks, Hero checks, BN checks
Turn ($52.50) 2 5 T 8
SB bets $50.14, Hero raises to $200.56, BN folds, SB raises to $651.82, Hero calls $339.14 and is all in

Reads: BTN unknow, guess is rec player, SB is presumed reg with low 3b numbers.

I think we have 3 options on the turn here
i) call
ii) raise small and call it off
iii) pot and call it off

The situation as I see it:
SB is not pure bluffing with this size, and rarely has a weak semi-bluff given his pot sizing.
- vs sets we are almost dead
- vs awesome draws we are flipping
- vs good draws we are pushing a bit of equity (55-65% if I had to guess)
Given he flatted in the SB I think we can discount almost all sets.
Given he flatted in the SB I think he very often has a FD and something to go along with it

As I write this it is pretty clear to me know that calling is the best play.
- we can save money on the river if has the non nut flush and it hits
- he will bluff often on bricks as our range contains a lot of draws/weak bluff catchers
- vs a GII range ott we are not doing great
- only downside really is letting BTN come along and take our position and realize his equity.

Interested to hear (or read) your thoughts

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