Turn Options 3w srp
Posted by sted9000
Posted by sted9000 posted in Mid Stakes
Turn Options 3w srp
SB: $720.50
BB: $557.20 (Hero)
UTG: $2024.65
MP: $472.20
CO: $3155.26
Reads: BTN unknow, guess is rec player, SB is presumed reg with low 3b numbers.
I think we have 3 options on the turn here
i) call
ii) raise small and call it off
iii) pot and call it off
The situation as I see it:
SB is not pure bluffing with this size, and rarely has a weak semi-bluff given his pot sizing.
- vs sets we are almost dead
- vs awesome draws we are flipping
- vs good draws we are pushing a bit of equity (55-65% if I had to guess)
Given he flatted in the SB I think we can discount almost all sets.
Given he flatted in the SB I think he very often has a FD and something to go along with it
As I write this it is pretty clear to me know that calling is the best play.
- we can save money on the river if has the non nut flush and it hits
- he will bluff often on bricks as our range contains a lot of draws/weak bluff catchers
- vs a GII range ott we are not doing great
- only downside really is letting BTN come along and take our position and realize his equity.
Interested to hear (or read) your thoughts
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