Turn lead against fish (good or bad?)
Posted by PacnyTuH0
Posted by
PacnyTuH0
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Turn lead against fish (good or bad?)
Villain is an any-4-cards fish
He likes bluffing when checked to, both as the PFR or caller.
My issue is regarding the turn, though.
I like leading turn with my hand since it's possible to push him off some weak hands
that have good equity against me and that he could decide to check back.
River, is this a default shove, once he only calls the turn?
The only reason for a shove would be to make him fold a set though.
He will not raise a set on the turn, for sure.
There is a chance he also calls with worse two pair, although I'm not very optimistic about it.
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Turn lead consideration:
Good:
- Villain is still wide. (Any 4 + wide cbetting)
- We have 8, blocking current nut a little
- We have dd, blocking FD continuation range
- We have ok equity when called
Bad:
- We have reverse implied odds when called. hitting a flush could mean losing more
- We will have a hard time playing a lot of rivers when called. Only offsuit 9 makes nut
- Villain is a any 4 villain. Not easy to make him fold anything.
River consideration:
We are 120bb effective for this pot. On the river we still have a few options
- Small bet / fold means we are blocking to get value from worse two pair, and believe him when he raises.
- Small bet / call means we are betting to induce him to do something crazy, with the thinking that he wouldn't raise with sets or 54, and 98 would have raised us on the turn. concluding that the raise means his any 4 makes him too wide on the river, a desperate move trying to win the pot.
- Big bet / sigh-fold means we continue to rep 98, hoping he fold a set.
- check / call means we believe he comes to river with a lot of air and will bluff them
- check / fold means we believe he would have folded his air on the turn and therefore he has more made hands. and he is trying to get some value since we checked
- check / raise is similar to big bet, and we get real greedy, and with a soul read.
Since you describe villain is any 4 villain and would stab, I imagine he does not give up easily and would still be quite wide on the river. I probably would check / call and hope that he is either bluffing or value betting as wide as Aces up with like Adxd. If he bets half pot / full pot we need to be right 25%/33% of the time. Hope the Any 4 wide preflop range saves us.
Grunching.
I don't run anything more than cheap/mundane bluffs unless I know a player folds enough. This player doesn't sound like the type who would fold the turn to a lead (more on that in a second), and if they're the any-four-cards type then they have a straight here too often for me to want to risk the huge bet (even if we lightly block 98).
To really be helpful, I'd really need to know what flavor of "any four" this player is. Some players like to see a lot of flops but raise preflop pretty infrequently. Some only see the RAISE POT button and a (very small) fold button preflop. This difference informs a ton of how I would think through this hand.
This player likes to open raise a lot. Most of the time he is the pre-flop agressor. He also has around 20% 3-bet frequency.
PacnyTuH0 That makes a big difference for me: that means they're going to have a lot more straights than they "should" OTT (and checking SDs OTF makes a lot of sense, even if I may be giving them too much credit) and I super don't want to lead so big as a result.
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