Tuff flop situation 280bb deep
Posted by BalTa
Posted by
BalTa
posted in
Low Stakes
Tuff flop situation 280bb deep
Prima, $0.05/$0.10 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $53.08 (530.8 bb)
BB: $9.45 (94.5 bb)
Hero (MP): $28.30 (283 bb)
CO: $12.94 (129.4 bb)
BTN: $11.12 (111.2 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP with K A
T
K
Hero raises to $0.35, 2 folds, SB raises to $1.15, BB folds, Hero raises to $3.55, SB calls $2.40
Flop: ($7.20) Q 7
5
(2 players)
SB bets $7.20, Hero 247 BB behind ???
Hello! Villain is recreational player VPIP/PFR/3b 71/56/58 Agg. Freq. F/T/R 68/58/47 Donk bet 70 (15) 110 hands.
Preflop : standard 4b for value vs him
Flop : Don't know how to approach flop situation. We are definitely slightly behind vs his leading range which contains a lot of Qxxx+ hands with pretty much always life cards and Pairs+GSh + hands. If we call there will be a lot of bad turn cards for us, where we have to just fold vs his second bet.
This how his leading range looks like and our equity vs it
I would like to know how to solve this situations and what is the best line for us here? Fold looks weak for me, we give up too much of our equity.
Loading 6 Comments...
For a player with those stats i feel like you narrowed his range to far towards his top end.
How do you see his range on the flop?
just what I would put here:
exclude QQ (at least),
input: Q+ (all TP or better, 2pair, bottom\mid sets), 5+:69+(bottom pair or better w\ gutter or better),5+:46+(OESD that has at least bottom pair to go with),346+ (all wraps)
can you post full hand or link to it (@weaktight or somewhere) so we can make a simulation w\ PJ ranges.
Here is the hand https://www.weaktight.com/h/58aff557d39043020f8b464e?simple=1
Thank you!
so, we have #A as made hand sub-range Qx,55,KK. I excluded 77-QQ as on the bord this dry it's likely he will play them differently, maybe even Q7 is more of x/r (tho, in fact, hard to say anything for sure about this type of player)
#B - any draw (OESD+) or pair+draw (TP+gutter, bottom pair+weak Open-ender)
total of 50%, hard to make it any wider here.
EV if shove OTF vs #B+ (sub range A and B) is $2.33
so, we're making money if he b\calls everything here (no FE)
but it's because we invested a lot pre. (OTF we'll have 43% vs this wider range we gave him)
obv, EV of shove goes up if we have some fold equity.
if SBs stack off range is 5+:46+,Q+,346+ (we're getting 9% of b\f OTF), then EV of shove goes up to $3.05
but, the thing is, we're behind in turms of GII equity OTF, so if it gets deeper - folding becoming more atractive option.
that's it pretty much. make conclusions yourself.
I'd say that with given depth GII is alright, vs somewhat tighter opponents or deeper stackfs (320bb+ or so) folding would be better.
we can also execute peel and stack off option, but 3\4\6\8\9\Q.. seems like too many bad runouts that I would have trouble playing at.
upd. also, if we exclude Q7+ from his donk range OTF our overall equity vs #A+#B goes up to 47% (which is significant)
regards,
Andrew
Thank you! Very good analysis!
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