TP+wrap on paired fd board in 3bet pot
Posted by Suniram
Posted by Suniram posted in Low Stakes
TP+wrap on paired fd board in 3bet pot
SB: $25 (Hero)
BB: $11.15
UTG: $56.56
HJ: $51.15
CO: $27.13
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $0.85, BN folds, Hero raises to $2.80, BB folds, CO calls $1.95
Villain is 58/34 over 88 hands. Seems to be active preflop (17% 3b) but rather passive postflop. Not crazy passive tho (21/20/25 - small sample obv). Fold to cbet is 45%.
OTF there is 89bb left eff.
Sorry if this is a very easy spot but I can't decide what line to take and why.
- Bet/gii seems rather ambitious considering that the SPR is >4 and we will only gii vs an 8 and maaaybe sometimes vs combodraws or w/e (which we block btw). Let's say he shoves 40%:(8, QT9:hh, T98:hh) we have around 27,5% vs only 40%:(8) we have 27%.
I don't know if it makes sense to regard it that way (please tell me if yes/no) but if we see our bet as a semibluff and villain will (hypothetically) only shove or fold, we need him to fold 59% if we gii w/ 27% on average. I thikn 59% folds is probably not gonna happen. The thing that makes the whole calculation irrelevant (imo) is that he obv will call some of the time and then our EQ is better than 27%, so I really don't know why I even calculated it. :D
- x/shove seems pretty attractive esp. if we have a villain that will stab a lot when checked to. That way we can win a ~40bb pot when villain b/f and when we gii we still have our wrap and prolly Js.
- I thought about x/calling and couldn't really decide how much I (dis)like it. Vs a snug opponent I feel like it might play out very well since he's not gonna bluff us a ton after we x/c OTF and we also induce a light flop bet. If villain was tougher (not necassarily tough in a good way, but just aggro) I think we are gonna make incorrect folds to often on turns or rivers.
- b/f seems ridiculous at first thought but I think vs really really straightforward opponents who will only shove 8s here it is actually worth considering. I guess that's rather theoretical tho since it's tough to be 100% sure only 8+ shoves here.
Considering all of this I'm think I like x/shove vs stabby opponents and x/c vs 'normal' oppoents. Betting just seems to not achieve too much. Not too many better hands will fold and the hands that would fold have very little EQ vs us (only very bad fds that he might fold have good EQ).
Curious what you think and sorry for rambling. :)
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