TPTK in 3bet pot - turn decision
Posted by Suniram
Posted by Suniram posted in Low Stakes
TPTK in 3bet pot - turn decision
SB: $30.48 (Hero)
BB: $10.77
UTG: $3.52
HJ: $19.52
CO: $11.94
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $0.22, BN calls $0.22, Hero raises to $0.98, BB folds, CO folds, BN calls $0.76
Villain is a weak regular. He plays 33/20 and his aggression is slightly less than average I'd say. He also doesn't 3bet much at all (0,8 over 325 hands) so his range for calling the 3bet is stronger since only the top 0,8% (pretty much only premium AA I guess) are discounted.
OTF I cbet to take down the pot. He folds to cbets 44% overall and also 44% (4/9) in 3bet pots.
For calling my flopbet I'd say he has Ax, any FD and also a few 345 type of hands. I can't tell if he would shove A8, A3 here. He's raised 3 out of 9 cbets in 3bet pots thus far.
OTT there is 70bb left eff and the pot is 53bb.
20%!1%:(ss, A, 234, 345, 245). Vs that range I have a lil more than 42% EQ and also some FE (against weak FDs, pair+gutter, A+bad kicker).
If I x OTT I feel like I will loose the pot so often if he either bets OTT or it goes x/x and we play a river. Potting seems a bit thin too but since he will shove at least some 2p OTF I'd say I have enough EQ vs his range to go with it. Agree?
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