Really ugly spot. His stack off range is not going to be crushing you but you'll definitely be less than 50% equity getting it in here. Given the high SPR, reraise getting it in is for sure -ev. The only exception is if you know he's capable of raise folding for such a large size.

b/c doesn't look too attractive either since an offsuit 8 are our only nut outs. So nearly every turn is going to be awkward to play. We most likely lose action on hearts unless he has them as well.

Perhaps the mistake was leading into an aggressive reg in the first place. If we know he's someone who c-bets a lot and barrels turns at a high frequency, this is a nice hand to have that can c/c twice very comfortably. Leading into someone who c-bets too much is not the proper adjustment.

I would prefer donking a hand like this into someone who checks back the flop a lot but peels too light.

I have put in some numbers in Odds Oracle and it looks to me as hero is be against his range. I tried to post it in a better format but it didn't worked :(

Here is a better version with 2 Ranges for villain

Simulation 1 optimistic Range

Simulation 2 realistic Range

Naturally my astimation of villains raising range can be wrong, any advice apriciated.

Can't belive though that hero is in bad shape and for me the stackoff is quite ok.

An alternative line can be to CR otf as it is rare to trigger bluff raises on this board with the donkbet and after CR flop und bet pot turn there are no nasty river decisions for hero to face. 

As played I don't think there is any other option than calling and re-evaluating on the turn.

Eckesach your estimation of his stack-off range seems way optimistic. No good vilain stacks off for 170bb with a dry KJ9 OTF. Even a hand like a dry QTxx (say QT67r) would probably be in disastrous shape when getting it in.

Not too fond of your flop lead btw, your hand is pretty and can easily c/c at least twice, but you have very few nutty outs, which is somewhat problematic when playing deep out of position against a good agressive reg to whom you give the opportunity to raise you OTF.

hey guys, and thx for all the replies, i see now that i forgot to add that his cb overall is 50%, my mistake.

plac: i think he is capable of raise folding with QT and some weaker hands, but i dont think we get a fold more often than about 10% of the time.

in a heads up pot its about 60% but a tight player as myself defending bb vs his very wide btn range, he will prob put me on big cards/pairs most of the time and also have a ton of weak hands/draws that he doesnt wanna cb. i doubt he cbets his air, and will check back a lot of weak/mediocre pair+draw/backdoors to improve or avoid getting c-red. this is why i chose to donk.

do you guys still not like the lead keeping that in mind?

his AF overall is about 3,2....his AF goes up by each street. def the lowest cb stat ive ever seen an aggro LAG with.

Eckesach: when you want to share a simulation in PPT youve run, its usually easier to click on the "link" button after you get the eq result, and the copy and paste that url into your post. maybe u cant do that in the oracle, in that case go to ppt.com, but i can see the range u put in so its fine.

as played i called even tho in hindsight i prefer potting it back just to protect my donking range. id rather c-r NFD+something/set/2p`+draw and hands too weak to cc once or twice if im gonna have weak hands and draws as well as strong hands in my c-r range.

the turn is a 4d

we check, he bets 75% pot, std call?

as played, turn is the 4d, i check-call again. river is a 7 no flush. so board is QT5dd 4 7, i check and villain seems to bet a little more than the "standard"(for this site) 75% pot.  not sure if the bet was in fact slightly larger than normal since i dont have the HH and im relying on memory.

the possibly slightly bigger bet made me think that we can remove QTxx from his range, which made me want to call. however the slightly bigger bet might mean that hes back doored into a str8 and he can ofc still have all the sets, and would he really bluff this big if he had a whiffed draw?

call or fold?

I don't think this is the type of hand you want to be donk leading.  You have this marginal amount of showdown value, and your equity is more robust vs his preflop range as a whole, particularly his flop x back range(so donking and narrowing his range isn't good).  Also, the hands that are folding to your donk are probably not making a mistake equity wise by folding.  Furthermore, the types of made hands your hand can improve to are generally worth between 1 and 2 streets(2pr/flush) and your equity will be more valuable either a) as a value bet or bluff catcher when you x/ca flop and improve on turns, or b) as a clear 2 street's of value hand the times flop goes ch ch and you improve on a flush or straight on the turn.  Not to mention, this is a hand you can close your eyes and x/ca two streets before having to make any real decisions, so there's that.

can't think of any reason why would would want to lead this hand.  can only think of a few reasons why we might want to x/r.  Seems like an easy x/c.  You're going to have enough equity to continue on pretty much every turn, but you don't have a hand that always wants to see a ton of money go in on the flop and the turn.  you have some SD value, so you don't need to create a ton of fold equity for the hand to have value, but you don't have enough that you want to be reducing opponents combos of value bets and bluffs and strengthening his/her range.

as played I guess call and make tough decisions on the turn.

as played do we call riveR?