I hope someone can do a PJ/PT analysis on this. I think its close but we can shove. I think calling is bad.

id call. we could shove...worst case scenario we have 36% eq (NFD+tp,nfd+OE,KK+fd and all sets) which is too pessimistic. add some top2 and some more nfd-combos and were approaching 40%.

either way i doubt we make much money shoving so id call. this also lets us get away from the hand if bb x-raises.

i can do some PJ-analysis, but id like to hear what ppl think his range for donking is otherwise its pointless to have an "objective" analysis based on my assumptions.

so paste the whole HH and gimme some different ranges for his donking.

I know the 3b is rather loose vs his range and cannot give explanation why I did so, but was quite confident about it then =)

Well there is a spot for you to improve your thinking process. If you decide to 3bet, you should have a clear thought and reasoning why 3bet is better than call or fold.

If you have any information on his donking range or frequencies, it would help. As normally he shouldn't donk anything super strong. By checking he will let you cbet most of your range, and BB can call before he shoves. With betting strong hands he just isolates himself against a strong range. So if he is a good player and you don't have a deep donkbet history, his range is probably semibluffs.

But then again, some players actually donk QQxx here or even stronger. You block Q, and I don't think he has that many 55/66 in his UTG opening range. I think his range has Ahxh very often.

I dont like calling here. We have good hand but it's difficult to get value when we hit (except straight). So I would shove if we have enough odds to go with the hand (and I'm pretty sure we have). I agree with kyyberi that villain does not have to have huge hand to donk here

ill run a simulation tomorrow, seems like the consensus is that villain doesnt have sets? do we give him nfd combos/KK+fd/OE+fd/Queens up?

so, if this is utgs range...

pre: $fi15 MINUS AA
flop: KKhh,Ahh:(Q,6,5,32+),Q6 MINUS 55+

disabling bb from calcs, assuming there is no fold equity vs utg a shove will net us $-3.74. since bb will sometimes wake up with a hand strong enough to gii vs a raise from us, this will lower our EV further (not by much) since our 3way ai eq cant be good. bb will have Q6+ 6% of the time, and the NFD/Q+fd/OE+fd 12% of the time.

add Q5+ and hh:43+ to utgs range and a shove is about BE (ignoring bb)

pro patria: i think hes donk folding less than 5% of the time. should he have a donk folding range? it might be good, hands that arent really strong enough to xc may wanna donk and it could be a decent spot, but i doubt any1 pot-folds on this board.

so again i dont see the point in shoving. yes calling will be tricky, but unless im way off about utgs betting range, i dont see raising as an option

id call flop and gii happily on the following cards:

1. Spades
2. A/K Hearts
3. Q-7 Diamonds + 3/2 Diamonds
4. Q-7 clubs + 3/2 clubs
   for a total of 29/45 turns
   re-evaluate on the rest

thanks for discussion\analysis in here, haven't thought on calling as an option while played it.