Tough spot on the turn
Posted by Hokunali
Posted by
Hokunali
posted in
High Stakes
Tough spot on the turn
10/10 25 (straddle) live game
I’m
most interested hearing thoughts about my play on turn, though flop play is
also certainly debatable. UTG is not an
unreasonably aggressive player, but so far won most of his pots without a
showdown.
BN: $4604.87
SB: $4163.80
BB: $4300 (Hero)
UTG: $5600.20
HJ: $1684
CO:
$6887.80
Preflop($300) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 4h 5d 7s 9h
HJ folds, CO raises
to $80, BN folds, SB folds, Hero calls
$80, UTG calls $80, HJ calls $80
Flop($340.00) 3d 6d 7c (4 Players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, HJ checks, CO checks
Turn($340.00) 3d 6d 7c KC(4 Players)
Hero bets $300, UTG raises
to $1240, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero calls $1240
River
($2820.00) 3d 6d 7c KC 3s(2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets
$2800 Hero?
Loading 11 Comments...
Turn call is good and somewhat standard I think. ur about 180bbs to start the hand and given stack to pot ratio OTT, u don't want to get it in. This is one of the few rivers I might lead as a bluff. If you have a good image then u should get folds a decent % of the time and its hard for him to be boated. I don't think leading diamonds or hearts is going to work out for u as he'll often have one of those flush draws if hes repotting the turn so u might bluff into a flush or he may decide to hero call u as u can have a ton of other missed draws. Maybe leading the 8c or 8d is good tho.
See, I'm not sure about my play on turn. I think flatting here can make it easy for the villain to play the river perfectly. If a club, or diamond hits, he can make a sizable bet and have me fold. If I shove all in on turn, then it prevents me from being bluffed on the river. Also, a hand like two flush draw might've played this hand the same way (referring to the villain), and by shoving the turn (and getting called), I'd be in good shape as long as neither flush hits. Also, the nuts straight plus one of the flush draws would also play it the same way. Unless the river is a brick, I end up folding to a sizeable bet on the river (either flush plus the board pairing), so all the more reason to shove on the turn?
turn is close. I understand the not wanting to get it in with a negative freeroll idea, but villain can basically play perfectly against us. He gets to value bet and bluff on any river that he wants with whatever frequencies. and he can certainly have top set+FD on this turn with deep stacks. So we can't really be certain if we have any opportunities to bluff the river since pretty much everything is in villains range.
The better villain is the more likely I am to just shove the turn and avoid making a mistake. If villain is bad I'm ok with just calling and assuming I can play rivers reasonably well. I think calling is probably the correct range play and the most +EV way to play if we play very well. But sometimes I don't play well so I take the easy route to avoid making a bigger mistake.
tough spot
How can villain play perfectly against us? You think if we flat the turn we only have 54 no re-draw?
It's kind of like when we have AA in a 3bet pot. Villains are going to weight a ton of our range as AA, regardless of our actual range construction. So when we do have AA we should realize that villain is likely to play well against our actual holding regardless of whether they play well against our actual range. Understanding your perceived range can be as valuable as your actual range construction in some cases.
But 45 no re-draw isn't the only hand we flat the turn with. I haven't done the combinatorics for this spot but I'm not sure its even 50% of our range. We have sets, sets + flush draw. wraps, wraps +flush draw, double flush draws and our range is protected when we flat the turn. There are a bunch of reasons why we don't have to worry about getting bluffed a lot on the river. We've led into 3 other people and he has repotted it with 2 others left to act. Sure CO is prob folding and HJs stack means he can do this fairly wide for value/protection vs his range but he can't go crazy esp when hes so deep vs us and also CO. Is villain going to bluff us off a chop when he's got a flush draw and the other one comes in OTR? Is villain going bomb the river when the board pairs when we can be C/Ring?
Of course the turn is the tricky part... but what about the flop ? you flop the nuts why not bet the flop ? sure you are probably getting called but If a non diamond hits the turn I would then pot it... your hand needs some protection as you don't have many redraws only to a (small) boat ? just my humble opinion... it would certainly make the turn decision easier and I would certaintly lead with a big bet. Am I missing something on the flop?
I'd lead the flop probably 75% of the time, and sometimes I'd check the flop to not cap my range. If someone would bet the flop, I'd probably just call, and wait for safe turn to either lead the turn, or check raise it. In other words, I want to have the nuts in my range to sometimes check the flop.
-you have the nuts oop on a reasonably dynamic board
-utg very rarely has 55/44 that he'll continue to bluff with on brick rivs
-utg can conceivably be raising decent equity hands such as KK AK98cc which hes getting in and which you beat
-not having a 3betting range here allows utg to value/semibluff raise wider, and 54 with a marginal redraw seems a pretty good candidate (idk if ppl saying we have bare 54 have missed or just discounted that any 8 riv improves you to a hand that beats bare 54)
to me all these add up to a pretty clear turn jam. if hes bluffing hes v rarely barreling riv, he can be raising worse for value or as a semibluff and hes calling the rest off with those hands, ur oop in a spot where you really dont want to be since ur best river strat is imo to play ur range entirely honestly.
I don't understand why villain can play perfectly against us on the river at all, we can have plenty more than just 54 no flush draw. I like the turn just call and I think river is close between leading to try to fold chops and check calling to pick off bluffs from double flush draws/flush draw + wraps. I think your range has way more boats than his though.
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