Vs a calling range of all better hands and all the worse boats (except 88) you have 46% eq (assuming 100% pre). Since the two lower str8 flushes are so unlikely esp given the action were gonna have slightly more than 52-55%. Assuming a player like this cant fold a boat, and we can prob remove some QQ and TT we have a clear (albeit close) jam imo esp since he may not be able to fold the NF. Vs a nit, or a tight player that thinks the bottom of ur range is T9 perhaps and u never bluff here then we could perhaps check. With this hand, are we gonna check fold tho? Doubt we can have that strong of a read and since his calling range is prob wider than his jamming range im def jamming.

Is it too strong to pot the flop?

I think you should make your flop cbet significantly bigger. Although the board is paired, this is a very wet board and lots of hands make strong draws and trips with redraw type hands. We want to get max value from all trips and draws OTF. If you make your cbet $5.5, then pot size on turn is (5.5+5.5+5.5+6) = 22.5, a much better SPR for us and then we can bet big again on turn and stacking off is trivial.

Another thing that can happen when you bet near pot on flop is that the short stack can jam over, the other villain can call the short jam or even try to iso vs. it, and you get it in 3way on the flop.

I guess maybe villain shows up with 98 sometimes. Seems like one of those spots where our jam only gets called by better.

But I'm not sure that I can find a fold if I check, and villain won't ever bluff or value bet worse. I guess jam is best.

I'd bet larger on both flop and turn. We don't block J and spades, so their range on turn can have more KJ/J8 and some combo draws with spades.

River looks like a jam, there's an off chance that he can find a call with T9 /98 and I don't think we can x/fold this. Like TMJ said though, I would expect to lose fairly often, just not often enough that I'd take other lines..

Also, although he shouldn't be calling our jam with nut flush on this river, people tend to get reluctant with rivered flushes after having called twice, so I wouldn't rule out that possibility entirely.

-- midori