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Top set @9T2r, Multyway, IP.

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Top set @9T2r, Multyway, IP.

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players) BN: $134.40
SB: $43.42
BB: $102.97
UTG: $179.94
MP: $92.68
CO: $50.25 (Hero)
UTG 21\12 opens from early 10%, CB 60%
SB - 34\12 (small sample)
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is CO with Q 9 T T
UTG raises to $1.75, MP calls $1.75, Hero calls $1.75, BN folds, SB calls $1.50, BB folds
Flop ($7.50) 9 T 2
SB checks, UTG bets $6.00, MP folds, Hero calls $6.00, SB folds
Turn ($19.50) 9 T 2 7
UTG checks, Hero bets $12.60, UTG raises to $56.32, Hero

I'd like to hear opinions if there is any merit to ever call this holding in particular spot.
I'm fully aware that pot OTF is instant +EV (tho we' re 'only' 60\40 vs '9T+:8J+,8JQ+,99,T:JQ+!RR' range (and 99 almost never in his range),
but maybe we can get higher expected value by calling (in some cases) this hand IP.

advantages of slowplaying OTF:
-SB rather loose (no info if aggro enough), might see 40bbs of deadmoney and x/r light (8+:JQ)
-we might get away on turn\river with small loss on some runouts as PFR's range is\supposed to be rather transparent if he keeps barreling,
-b\f hands (AAT, KK9 etc.) might pays as 1 more street when 9\2 comes.

downside of calling
-its multyway,
-bord isn't static
-we don't know where we stand at some turn runouts (7,J)

Turn vs x\r (just for good measure):
we need 28.5%
we get 29% vs (8J,77+:dd,JQK:dd,9T:Kdd+)
-rake = breakeven at best (probably ranges should be tighter, at this turn I'd expect him to x/r most J8xx, at the same time only 7% of $FI12 contain J8xx)

own sizing: I guess I don't b\fold here much, so potting might be only sizing, idk.

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