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Top and middle two pair facing a turn donk pot on a drawy flop

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Top and middle two pair facing a turn donk pot on a drawy flop

BB: $553.15
CO: $741.40
BN: $1464.30 (Hero)
SB: $97.94
Preflop ($9.00) (4 Players)
Hero was dealt A K 6 T
CO raises to $18, Hero calls $18, SB folds, BB calls $12
Flop ($57.00) K 3 7 (3 Players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $42, BB calls $42, CO folds
Turn ($141.00) K 3 7 6 (2 Players)
BB bets $129
Villain in this hand is a high stakes reg - copiaad. and I have his stats running at 29/18/2.4 with a 7.2% 3b. I think up to the turn everything is pretty standard.

When he leads here he is essentially repping 45 or some combo of Kx that picked up additional equity. I expect his top 2's and sets to go for the check jam. My hand doesn't play well by calling so I think i'm left with the option of folding or shoving. In this particular spot, I'm shoving all sets and 2 pairs with flush or str8 draws. I think this would be one of the worst hand I'd be shoving.

My hand doesn't do that well equity wise either when called, which is going to be pretty much all the time. So do you guys think a fold here is ok? Or should I just ship it given his range is likely going to be wide.

4 Comments

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goldy14 12 years, 3 months ago
Hey, I Made the sim and I think it's close but a fold since against his range you have ~36% and you need ~40% to shove and show a profit. With any flush draw to go with you hand you climb to ~50%.
Phil Galfond 12 years, 3 months ago
I think that calling shouldn't be off the table, as Overbet asked.

Calling this turn to call down on brick rivers might work better against his range. If a draw hits and he shoves, you can be fairly confident in your fold, given the types of hands we expect him to have. If a draw hits and he checks, you can consider turning your hand into a very credible bluff.

The range of hands you said you're shoving the turn with implies that you're very strong made hand heavy when shoving, and very weak and draw heavy when calling turns here. This is something you should take a look at.
coldids 12 years, 3 months ago
I agree that calling is probably better, but playing rivers is def kinda iffy because there are so few bricks (Any clubs, any diamonds, 4's, 5's and maybe even some other straight completing cards aren't really bricks if we can't narrow down his range)

I guess what I'm saying is that I'd need some more reads to determine what I'd do on the river on various cards and, and maybe what I'd do on the turn, too.

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