To bluff or Toulouse ?

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

To bluff or Toulouse ?

BB: $858.15
BN: $182.30 (Hero)
SB: $200
Preflop ($3.00) (3 Players)
Hero was dealt 9 8 8 A
Hero raises to $4, SB folds, BB raises to $6, Hero calls $2
OK, nothing special, opponent min raises from BB though.. I call....
Flop ($15.00) 6 2 9 (2 Players)
BB bets $7.80, Hero calls $7.80
I call cause:

I have TP TK
I have BDFD
I have chance to bluff later w/ blockers.
Turn ($30.60) 6 2 9 T (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $17.15, BB calls $17.15
He shows weakness, I bet as I could have made straight now pretty easily in my opponent's eyes.
+ I could improve to straight or to 2P/set+TK/trips + TK....
Dont know what he might have... He just calls....
River ($64.90) 6 2 9 T 4 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $56.60
Perfect spot for bluff the way the hand has been played
or you think differently..?

ty

7 Comments

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ZenFish 11 years, 2 months ago

Can't be a bad spot. You block the nuts and also some bluffcatcher combos with the 9. It would have been better if there had been a possible busted flush draw for him to have, but we can't always get everything.

Thinking about the bigger perspective, this hand (at least to to me) seems like one we should bluff 100% of the time when we hit our gin bluffing card and the board doesn't change. Because that was the whole plan for the hand when we floated (with the exception of a few fortunate turn/river runouts that gives us enough to show down).

So the part written for this hand in my strategy manuscript is: Balance my valuebets twice and let other hands handle other things, like valubetting, checking down, or bluffing only once.

If this means we're bluffing too much on the river, we should shut down with more showdownable blocker hands, or strengthen our range by making fewer flop floats like this.

These are hand-wavy arguments, but to me they seem consistent with some sort of qualitatively correct GTO game plan. The exact percentages are beyond our control, but slotting our various hands in to the ranges where they perform best is a good start.


Phil Galfond 11 years, 2 months ago

With no flop flush draw, we are definitely towards the bottom of our range on a board which isn't likely to nail an opponents 3b range (especially the 4 river after he x/c turn).  It's pretty likely he has one pair, and even two pair will be hard pressed to call.

Well played.

ggho22 11 years, 2 months ago

wp i just don't know about the turn bet , 55% i think is too low since in these spots most of the times we are getting value on the turn and getting folds otr 

lofigr 11 years, 2 months ago

Reverse psihology.....

Bet small to make it look like I am balancing (air or nuts), bet big "to look it like a bluff", I am doing like that all the time and it works pretty much fine... Though your advise is also good, thanks.

Tom Coldwell 11 years, 2 months ago
In a vacuum, that makes this an awesome bet-size 'cas we can "value-bet" the turn to bluff river (by which I mean get him to continue for another street when we know he's folding later on, thus building a larger pot to win with our bluff).

Obviously if you think he's gonna call a larger bet OTT and fold OTR, then a larger bet would be perfect regardless of whether we're value-betting or bluffing.


lofigr 11 years, 2 months ago

Thanks all for the comments.

Result:

Villain called and won the hand with Q654r (two "near bottom" pairs).

We had no history, I took a notes on him for next time...

Regards.


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