thin value OTR after donkbetting twice?

Posted by

Posted by posted in Low Stakes

thin value OTR after donkbetting twice?

BN: $37.36
SB: $49.31
BB: $53.14 (Hero)
UTG: $143.24
HJ: $53.42
CO: $52.29
Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 3 T Q A
UTG folds, HJ raises to $1.75, CO folds, BN folds, SB calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.25
Flop ($5.25) 8 Q 5 (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4, HJ calls $4, SB folds
Turn ($13.25) 2 (2 Players)
Hero bets $10.75, HJ calls $10.75
River ($34.75) 3 (2 Players)
I have 36,5 left OTR. Should've bet a tad bigger OTT I guess.

I called preflop because SB is a weak player. I'd fold HU or if SB was decent (or tighter).
MP is 30/22 and seems like a good regular. Gets a bit too aggro with too weak hands once in a while.

OTF I decided to donkbet since I block TP and the NFD (I will rarely get raised), MP will have to play honest since there is SB left to act and I don't mind playing IP vs the range that SB is gonna x/c. Like?

OTT: Hands I expect MP to call with (Q,KK,AA)+gutter, wraps, FD+gutter/pair. I'm not sure if he thinks I'm leading wide here. I would guess he preceives me as rather in-line. Therefore I do expect him to not autoraise 55,88,Q8 here. If his Q8 has a fd to go I'd expect a raise. Not sure about Q8+gutter.
Anyways, my perceived range likes this turn way more than his range does. Even with KK/AA he should be very cautious since I have a decent amount of top2, QQ, monsterdraws. Therefore I led again. Like?

OTR: After he calls again OTT I think his range becomes very narrow. A lot of hands that call the flop will shove or fold the turn I think. Stuff like overpairs will mostly shove if the turned spades or fold if they don't have much to go with. I don't think OP+gutter always calls that turn by any means. There are still a lot of pair+draw/ non-nutty sd+fd combos in his calling range tho.
With those assumptions I tihnk I am ahead OTR 90%+. Only hands I fear are AA4, Q5**, Q8 (which will sometimes fold or shove OTT). So there a bunch of busted draws that either have Q/KK/AA to go with and will hope to show down or some busted draws with nothing or a weak pair to go with it that don't expect to be good.
Is there more value in checking to induce shoves that will try to get me off my hand or in shoving myself to get heroed by Q/KK/AA? I'd say the latter but could be convinced otherwise.

As always, comments on any streets are highly appreciated!

Loading 0 Comments...

Be the first to add a comment

You must upgrade your account to leave a comment.

This thread has been locked. No further comments can be added.

Runitonce.com uses cookies to give you the best experience. Learn more about our Cookie Policy