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The death of EV: Is checking behind more + EV or should we shove?

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The death of EV: Is checking behind more + EV or should we shove?

Hey

1/2 live game with mandatory 5 button straddle. 8 handed. Everyone at the table is a VPIP 80%+ fish very call happy

EP opens pot and there are 2 callers behind we squeeze from the BTN with KK76ds (ignore the part whether it is a good 3 bet or not )
Everyone calls.
Flop SPR: 2
Flop KJTr (we have 2 BDFD)

My friend said that it is an easy shove at spr 2 but, i think checking behind is more +ev.
Agaist 3 people(12 cards), even loose it is very likely that a straight is out and noone ever folds Q9.
We have not a ton to protect against.
We cant really get value from hands we crush (there are a few JT, TT,JJ- but we can stack them anyways by playing turn and river)
So I decided ti check behind and wait for my BDFD or the board to pair.
I also expect a lot of implied odds, on both the boat and the Bdoor flush (from straights and from worse boats)

This is a concept I watched in Phil's Death of EV Unexpected value video back then, and it just came to my mind- I think its quite relevant.

What are your opinion guys, and put things in more detail why you think what you think :)

Eph

17 Comments

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Disharmonist 8 years, 6 months ago

SPR of 2; pretty easy to GII, against flopped straight you GII anyways, maybe the turn some random 2 pair, pick up a weak fd, etc. So yeah, you might get a bit more value, altough shoving is really high EV. Both options are high in EV, simply through handstrenght.
I also think that then essence of referred video was more about bad judgement about a "wanting to bet" approach in very thin spots in which we know that no matter what we do, we wont win much money.

DirtyD 8 years, 6 months ago

You have a good hand and there's a lot of money in the middle, no need to get fancy, just stick it in. I'm getting that someone has a straight about 56%, although I'd guess it's a little less likely when they check to us, and in any case our equity against a straight is fine. Betting the flop is clearly very +EV, so let's think about why checking might be better:
-Induce a bluff - seems very unlikely
-Let someone catch up to a second best hand - not too likely either
-Let us get away from our hand when we're beat - I don't think that's what we're trying to do here

I actually think we're a bit more likely to get action from second best hands by betting right away. We do benefit some from protection as well, since any Qx hand that doesn't have a straight already is fairly likely to have an open-ender.

So I like betting the flop. You could consider betting less than pot to encourage action from hands we beat, but it's probably unlikely to make a difference.

Ephedrine10 8 years, 6 months ago

All of these things makes sense to me. Let me put my thought process this way:
Their possible holdings:
Str8: obv better to chb

worse made hand (JT for example): they are probably folding and they are more likely to call me on a blank turn after checking back but i have 2 streets to stack them.

Qx in this case its better to bet

Air: it does not matter probably
We are not gonna get bluffed out.
Also if there is a fd out, im shoving, 3way shoving too (looser GII ranges, few str8)
56% str8 is a lot and my concern is that i rarely can GII good.

DirtyD 8 years, 6 months ago

Why is it better to check against a straight? Are you planning to fold to a pot-sized bet on a blank turn? If you're not folding regardless, you don't save yourself money by checking - the money goes in anyway. Meanwhile, there's a chance someone correctly folds a straight with 0% equity on a board-pairing turn.

Ephedrine10 8 years, 6 months ago

In the hand i checked back and the utg player who is very passive, potted into 3 people on a blank no fd 2 and i folded. It s just never a bluff from this type of guy. And actually i was planning to fold to such action and bet turn if checked to, call if i get the odds. If you are 100% sure you dont get bluffed out and no worse hand pots and also few hands to protect against. But im gonna buy PJ again and do a cal coz im really interested. Ongame it seemed a no brainer shove to me as well but then i started thinking why DO i bet? For value ? For protection?

Disharmonist 8 years, 6 months ago

Why do you squeeze pre then? For value? For protection which you know wont work?
"(ignore the part whether it is a good 3 bet or not ) " I think that is the exact point. If you bloat the pre, you have to go with no non nut hands post more often.

DirtyD 8 years, 6 months ago

If I had to boil down the reason for betting into one phrase, it's "win the pot," which is incredibly valuable with this much in the middle.

Tom Chambers 8 years, 6 months ago

A, Q, 9 kill your action from lower sets and give a lot of hands that didn't flop a straight a straight. That's more than a quarter of the deck.

Th7TrueHeartLiesInOldNature 8 years, 6 months ago

too much said here already, dont need to repeat after them, just want to add to your question why do you bet, whether for value or protection or what. this kind of thinking doesnt fit into this situation at all. i would say more adequate question is whether bet or check has higher EV and why, then you will come to the answers that were given here. also you have around 38% eq. against a straight if they dont hold your outs, double bdfd adds some % on top. if your opponents collectively hold a straight 56% of the time, then SPR of 2 becomes a huge caption of the pot for you, since you get to fold them out 44% of the time. if they call you more hands, that means higher EV for you since u will be favorite. never check back on this flop.

jonna102 8 years, 6 months ago

This is a concept I watched in Phil's Death of EV Unexpected value video back then, and it just came to my mind- I think its quite relevant.

I found the title of that video unfortunate, and maybe in this thread we see why. It's not about death of EV at all, he actually makes the exact opposite point; to consider the EV of all options and pick the highest. He talks about it as pot share, but technically it's the same thing. I'm sure the intent was that it's more intuitive to some people to think about it that way. It's just the title that is misleading imo, and maybe that's what's confusing you here?

Fwiw, I do agree that checking is an undervalued option in many situations. This is just not one of them. You've flopped a monster and the chips should go in. There's no way checking can be higher EV in this case.

However, it might be a good exercise for you to come up with some situations where checking would actually be better, but where players often bet. This thread would actually be a good place to share some such situations, if you want some feedback on them.

SlotMachine 8 years, 6 months ago

Yeah. Perhaps it should have been something more like:

The death of the "Is this a +EV play?" and the birth of "Is this the highest EV play?"

As often times players were just asking "is this a +EV jam?" or "is this a +EV bet?" while just looking at their equity or fold equity or combination there of instead of considering that they need to compare that to the EV of all the alternatives.

Then the potshare concept is useful in comparing the EV of a shove or a bet to what your actual share of the pot should be. That is to know if something is likely the highest EV play by comparing it to your potshare.

sted9000 8 years, 6 months ago

Troubling b/c my intuition fell on the side on Ephedrine's check

Seems like there are quite a few variables here. So I will try to fix a few and see if maybe some math can 'prove' my intuition superior!!!

Assumptions:
i- 3 players ranges = 50%!AA
ii- Still have AQxx in ranges after checking
iii- Know that a bet on the turn is from AQ and will make the proper decision
iv- Q9 folds to shove w/o 2p+ to go with
v- TT+ w a Q will also call
vi- Pot = 1; stacks = 2
vii- All bets are committing shoves

EV of a shove:
i) how often you get folds
- Opponent 1 has it 16.5
- When he dont, Opponent 2 has it 17.5
- When both dont, Opponent 3 has it 18
-> we get...... 100 - (16.5 + 17.5 + 18) = 48% folds

ii) equity when we do get it in
- vs one oppenent we have 43
- vs two opponents we have 40
- vs all three opponents we have 38.5

Dont feel like figuring out the proper math, but I think this is close
- up against one .83 * .83 * .17 + .83 * .17 * .83 + .17 * .83 * .83 = 35
- up against two about 1/4 as ofter = 9
- up against all three about 2
-> that equals 46 so we need to add 6 percent to get us to the 52 percent of the time we get it in. Let's add 3, 2, and 1 respectively. So we are getting it in vs one, two, and three with 38, 11, and 3 opponents respectively.

EV of a Shove:
(folds) + (one) + (two) + (all three opponents) - (cost) = EV
(1 * .48) + ((5 * .43 * .38) + (7 * .40 * .11) + (9 * .385 * .03) - 2(.52)) = .67 psb
or you can write it like:

(1 * .48) + (3 * .43 * .38) - (2 * .57 * .38) + (5 * .40 * .11) - (2 * .6 * .11) + (7 * .385 * .03) - (2 * .615 * .03) = .67 psb

Checking back:
i) what can happen (outcomes)(probability)
a- board pairs (we win entire pot)(7/45)
b- blank FD card(we check back or we call with 39% equity vs AQ)(18/45)
c- blank off-suit card(we check back or we fold with 23% equity vs AQ)(20/45)

Assumptions:
i- no more action on board pair
ii- realize exactly our equity when calling or checking back turn
iii- only up against one player on the turn if we face bet
iv- we check back again facing no turn bet
v- we face turn bet 1/2 of the time
vi- AQ is still in their ranges after checking twice (we have around 38% on random turns that don't pair the board or give us a FD)

ii) EV of checking back:
-> (board pairs) + (call on FD and win) - (call on FD and lose) + (fold on brick) + (win when checking back on brick)
-> (7/45)(1) + (18/45)(2)(.39) - (18/45)(-1)(.61) + (20/45)(.5)(0) + (20/45)(.5)(1)(.38) = .80

I believe that my math is correct (if not please let me know).
If so and you still think that shoving is the play. Where are my assumptions out of line.

Thanks

DirtyD 8 years, 6 months ago

I don't completely follow everything you're doing, but a few things that stand out:

In i) of EV of Shove, summing the chance that each player will fold does not give the chance that all players fold - the math doesn't work that way. For example, if two opponents each folded 50% of the time, the chance they both fold is clearly not 100%.

I'm glad you showed the multi-way equity - I don't think that's been mentioned yet in the thread, but it's another reason to shove. If we get it in 3-way or more our equity is great.

In the equation in ii), I don't think you're weighting the different possibilities appropriately. For example, in the second and third terms, they're each 18/45, so this is going to add up to way more than 45/45...and I'm not sure, but it seems like you're assuming someone has a straight every time, but they really do only about half the time.

jonna102 8 years, 6 months ago

I don't completely follow what you're doing either, but I also see a few math errors. One way to become aware of them yourself is to make your presentation a bit clearer. That makes it easier for others to follow what you're doing, and also may help you realize logic or math errors yourself. Your intuition may well be right, but the math you've done isn't convincing me to change my opinion just yet.

sted9000 8 years, 6 months ago

Goal: I am going try to set in stone a few variables to see if checking back or betting would be better under those conditions. While trying to make it simple enough that it does not take me all day.
First let me make some assumptions. While they may be highly questionable, but we can debate and change adjust them later.

i- all three opponents have ranges of: 50%!AA
ii- all three opponents still have 100% of their AQxx hands after checking
iii- if we face a turn bet: we know that it is from AQ and we will act appropriately
iv- a flop bet will get Q9 to fold if it doesn't have 2p+ to go with it
v- a flop bet will get action from the following worse hands: TT+:Q
vi- Pot = 1; stacks = 2
vii- All bets are committing shoves

.............................................................................................

EV of a shove = (fold %)(pot) + (equity when called)(pot size)(1-fold %) - (cost of the bet)(1-fold %)

Fold % translates to "how often nobody has AQ, Q9:(KK,JJ,TT,KJ,KT,JT), (KK,JJ,TT):Q
Fold % = 56.5%[1]

Equity when called for all three cases of how we can get it in on the flop:
- vs one opponent we have 39% and it occurs at 37.3% frequency [2][3]
- vs two opponents we have 38% and it occurs at 6%
- vs all three opponents we have 37% and it occurs at 0.2%
STORY CHECKS OUT as 37.3 + 6 + 0.2 + 56.5 = 100

EV of a Shove = (.565)(1) + (.39 * 5 * .373) + (.38 * 7 * .06) + (.37 * 9 * .002) - (1-.565)(2) => .59 of the pot
or you can write it like this:
EV of a Shove = (.565)(1) + (.39 * 3 * .373) - (.61 * 2 * .373) + (.38 * 5 * .06) - (.62 * 2 * .06) + (.37 * 7 * .002) - (.63 * 2 * .002)=> .59 of the pot

...............................................................................................

Checking back:
- before estimating the EV of checking back, lets divide the turn cards into three groups (and then assume how each group will play out)(and at what frequency):
i- board pairs (we win entire pot)(7/45)
ii- turn we turn a FD to go with our set (we check back if checked to or we call with 39% equity vs AQ)(18/45)
iii- blank (we check back or we fold facing a bet with only 23% equity vs AQ)(20/45)

More Assumptions:
i- no more action on board pair
ii- realize exactly our equity when calling or checking back turn
iii- only up against one player on the turn if we face bet (doing this for simplicity)
iv- we face turn bet 1/2 of the time (this is about how often AQ shows up in someones hand, so it seems reasonable)
vi- AQ is still in their ranges after checking twice (we have around 38% on random turns that don't pair the board or give us a FD, and 50% with a FD)

EV of checking back:
-> (board pairs) + (call on FD and win) - (call on FD and lose) + (win on FD after checking back) + (fold on brick) + (win when checking back on brick)
-> (7/45)(1) + (18/45)(.5)(.39)(2) - (18/45)(.5)(.61)(1) + (18/45)(.5)(.50)(1) + (20/45)(.5)(0) + (20/45)(.5)(.38)(1) => .37 of the pot [4]

................................................................................

Given these assumptions and the (hopefully correct) math it looks like betting outperforms checking.

...............................................................................

Thanks for pointing out my sloppy work and thinking. Please let me know if you see anything else.

Work Cited
[1] https://gyazo.com/e5c92e79c406a44e0c23dbcd95cc0c11
[2] https://gyazo.com/124a951b05de84daebab4f9ba0a03576
[3] https://gyazo.com/aa9ca5413eb07e071643929e580ec70e
[4] https://gyazo.com/fa168d7cd6b619123984c9f5544e5fa2

jonna102 8 years, 6 months ago

This does look like an improvement over what you had before. Very often it's not actually the end results that are the most important component in learning, but rather going through the whole process itself.

What did you learn from going through this process?

sted9000 8 years, 6 months ago

What I learned:
Abstract stuff:
- I like using notepad, but for something like this it is not a very good way to stay organized
- PPT is more powerful than I thought (For example DirtyD pointed out the I messed up the calculation of for how often all three players fold to a flop bet. Turns out that there is a function in PPT that answers exactly that. Faster and more accurate.)
- After doing this I am more comfortable with the two different ways of writing an 'EV equation'. One where you include your bet in the total pot and then subtract it back out in the 'cost of the bet' part of the equation. And the other, where you don't include your bet in the total pot size and the 'cost of the bet' only occurs when you lose the pot.
- Having people read your work and point out what is wrong with it is a very efficient way to learn.

About the hand:
- About half our EV comes from winning the pot right now with a bet.
- Seems like the story of "Winning a big pot right now or get it in with 40%" seems to due better than "We have a strong hand but we are never ahead when we get called. And it is a 4 way pot so we will get called often"
- The little math I did is not super useful with out tweaking some of the assumptions and seeing things change.

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