T886ds vs. a fish
Posted by Ondra Machálek
Posted by
Ondra Machálek
posted in
Low Stakes
T886ds vs. a fish
CO: Cree Shans: $37.96
BN: wtew4: $28.66
SB: tentells: $23.22
BB: Realfannr1: $61.31
HJ: Alficor1: $33.25
BN: wtew4: $28.66
SB: tentells: $23.22
BB: Realfannr1: $61.31
HJ: Alficor1: $33.25
Villain is playing 55/8 over 130 hands, but surprisingly hasn't been involved in any big pots over those 130 hands.
Preflop
($0.35)
(5 Players)
Alficor1 was dealt
8
6
8
T
Alficor1 raises to $0.75, Cree Shans calls $0.75, wtew4 folds, tentells calls $0.65, Realfannr1 calls $0.50
Alficor1 raises to $0.75, Cree Shans calls $0.75, wtew4 folds, tentells calls $0.65, Realfannr1 calls $0.50
Pretty loose, but the players in blinds are big fish and the players ip are quite tight.
Flop
($3.00)
9
7
3
(4 Players)
tentells bets $1,
Realfannr1 calls $1,
Alficor1 raises to $5.90,
Cree Shans folds,
tentells folds,
Realfannr1 calls $4.90
I flop about as good as I possibly can, I'm super happy to get it in for my 125ish bbs vs. two fish.
Turn
($15.80)
9
7
3
J
(2 Players)
Realfannr1 checks,
Alficor1 bets $10.20,
Realfannr1 calls $10.20
It got even better. He tank calls, so I think his most likely hands are some weak made hands like two pair or maybe just a nut fd since he is a massive fish.
River
($36.20)
9
7
3
J
K
(2 Players)
Realfannr1 bets $34.57,
Alficor1 folds
Sigh, I do have only $16 behind, but I cannot see myself being good here like ever, so I fold.
Final Pot
Realfannr1
wins $34.57
Loading 14 Comments...
Our flush outs are severely devalued in a 4-way pot after SB leads into the field and gets called. Our draw would play well HU in position (particularly in a 3-bet pot) but not so much in a singly raised and very multiway pot. The hands we fear are likely out there.
To illustrate what kind of equity we'll typically have:
We're exactly 50-50 heads-up against a random higher flushdraw (Acc, Kcc, etc). We're also flipping 3-way vs a random higher flushdraw and a random T8. Note that implied odds are working against us because we have few outs to the nuts. We have position, which helps, but non-nuttiness is a big problem for us.
When we take a flop 4-way and two players show interest in front of us, we'll often find ourselves up against the types of hands we don't want to see: Better flushdraws and duplicating (and sometimes dominating) straight draws. There's also that player left to act behind us, that's important to factor in.
Note that our straight outs aren't all to the nuts either. We have 9 immediate nut outs (any non-club 5/6/J). Those outs are further devalued by the opposition's duplicating straight draws + redraws to better straights and flushes. If we'd had a 100% nutty wrap we would of course have an easy flop call, but it's not always an automatic call with such a non-nutty draw multiway. Bet size, stacks, position, and action in front of us must be considered.
EDIT: Forget that I mentioned folding at the beginning of the post (counted the wrap outs wrong when I wrote that, we have 9 nut outs on the flop, not 6). We're getting a good price, and we have position on two players + a handful of good outs. Call and play turns.
To give people an idea of quite how huge we flopped here, against two players, one of whom holds Ac*c** and the other who holds 99**, we are 31.5%. We nearly have 1/3 of the equity when we only have the wrap + bdfd and a ton of cards are kills. Change the set to two pair and we become the overall favourite w/ 36.7%. We just can't be getting this in bad unless we happen to run into something like Ac9c and even then we're 40%. Add that to the fact that we have a ton of fold equity and our draws will be harder to play later on w/ a higher SPR and more potential callers and I think we should be putting as much in now as we can. It's all well and good trying to draw to the nuts, but sometimes you have so many draws that you simply have to accept that you're going with it.
The worst scenario is running into better flushdraw + better made hand + dominating wrap. That doesn't happen often, but it will happen sometimes, and then we're pretty crushed (21% 3-way vs Ac9c and JT8).
A more likely scenario is to face a higher flushdraw + better made hand. If that happens 3-way, we'll get it in slightly good or slightly bad. Not a lot of +/- EV, but probably a net win for us in these spots (seems so after running through some examples), lots of variance. HU it gets worse. If you raise and isolate yourself against one such hand, you'll get your fold equity from the 3rd player folding, but it won't help you.
Let's say everybody else folds and SB stacks off with a hand like that (Ac9c, JJ:cc, it doesn't matter, they are pretty much the same against your hand). Now you'll be getting it in with ~40% HU and lose about -$2.89 (doing a calc with exactly 40% vs SB). Note that the $3 + $1 overlay from the flop pot and the 3rd player calling then folding isn't enough to get it in profitably vs SB in this situation.
Now, we could get extremely lucky and fold out all higher flush draws, but I wouldn't consider that a sound game plan against two fish that have already invested money. The easiest way to beat loose players is to play better hands than them. In singly raised, multiway pots this usually translates to drawing nuttier. Fold equity is a bonus, but not something we can rely on once there's loose, multiway action and we're not drawing to the nuts.
So to summarize:
1) A higher flush draw is very likely out there
2) We can't expect to win the pot immediately with a raise against two fish
3) We'll get it in bad a lot even against the fish
4) The player behind us could wake up with a big hand
I don't see why we should be eager to stack off here. We're not setting ourselves up for disaster either, but remember that beating PLO is about consistently finding the profitable end of all those close-to-flipping spots. There's a big difference between a 4-way pot and a 4-way pot where two players have already signaled that they have hit something. This is one reason why position is so valuable with non-nutty hands. We can get away cheaply when action in front of us indicates our draw is in trouble.
1) You've not given me any chance of just taking the pot down which, if we lose $2.89 on getting it in, we don't have to do often to make a profit. This is because you are assuming these guys are super interested in the pot 'cas they have invested some money. One has made a 1/3 pot bet and the other has called that tiny lead. Neither of those actions indicates a monster so I don't think we need to fear huge hands yet (especially not from the caller).
2) You're conflating a higher flush draw being out there with a higher flush draw calling my raise when, in reality, I expect to fold a decent number of higher but non-nut flush draws. Even fish don't just cling on to Q-high flush draws here very often at all. By raising, we give ourselves a notable chance of ending up w/ the best flush draw (yes, the nut flush draw is out there somewhat often, but it's far from a guarantee).
On top of this, you discount the added benefit of being able to rep a made hand later on if we get HU and are called (more likely than being jammed on imo and there's plenty of money left to play). Having raised, we may well often get called by the nut flush draw, even Ac9c**, but will often push him out when he misses, even if we don't make a better hand, because our raise looks like a set to most villains. Given we block two of his clubs, we actually stand a very good chance of winning this pot later even though he was a solid favourite.
I completely get where you're coming from, I just view this hand very differently. The one other thing which I don't think has been mentioned is this preflop open. Personally, I think this is a very loose open and wouldn't have considered entering from the HJ. I'd usually play it from CO I think, but I'd be reluctant to and wouldn't be horrified to see someone fold it at all (unless blinds were super tight and/or fit/foldy).
In an information sparse environment it's fine to play it safe in spots where we could be headed for trouble (let's not forget the player behind us either). If I'd known more about my opponents, I'd be more willing to play exploitively.
So it seems our disagreement is one of starting assumptions, not logic/planning. That's fine. ;-)
Agree about the PFR. Standard from CO, a bit loose from HJ. It helps that the players behind us are tight.
I think we all should pay more attention and make game plans more according to this
On the other hand, we are where we are, question is what to do when we got where we are, we might have used more superior game plan, but as we didnt, what to do on rvr is question, and past mistakes we leave behind when making a new decision
Not very clear yet what is to do best at that point
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