Straight + flush redraw on turn, but board pairs river, facing bet
Posted by WillyOdin
Posted by
WillyOdin
posted in
Low Stakes
Straight + flush redraw on turn, but board pairs river, facing bet
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (3 Players)
BB: $73.25
BN: $50.68
SB: $52.61 (Hero)
BN: $50.68
SB: $52.61 (Hero)
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is SB with
J
T
A
9
, ,
Flop
($3.00)
8
9
7
,
Turn
($7.50)
8
9
7
Q
, , ,
River
($52.50)
8
9
7
Q
Q
, ,
Hi guys,
Same vilain than in the other hand, 46/25, seems to defend wide its BB vs SB, apparently quite aggro post flop (especially by raising CBets on flops) and sticky vs CB.
As already mentionned, I am rather new to PLO. I am not sure about the c/r turn; I thought that allowing sets or 2pairs to see a river was not that awfull and that c/r was the best way to freeroll TJxx and to take value on other straight. But I guess that this could be challenged.
Hopefully he bets, I raise with pleasure, but the board pairs river. Is it a check/call or a check/fold ?
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snap call river, he could be v-betting worse.
JT will raise a bet ott anyway so x-ring turn just to freeroll the same hand might not be worth it. i think a bet x-r line is fine here with your hand unless villain will check back a lot
Do you think he x/shoves worse than a NF after being x/raised OTT? Why would he do that? Our range is suuuper NF-heavy. We almost never have a worse flush.
What do you expect him to bet/call OTT? Looks pretty flush and set/ 2p-heavy so he either has us beat or a worse flush that he prolly won't bet.
Oh, I missed that we only have half-pot left OTR. Makes folding harder but still I stay with the range I gave him and I don't think we should call that.
But isn't that a spot where he's likely to check back a lot? I guess he might be aggro enough to where x/potting can't be that bad but in general I expect his calling range to include a lot of pair + draw type hands which he might check back a lot as well as his 2pairs and sets.
And I'd also prefer to bet and have him call with the weakest parts of his range than let him bet and push him out with a check/pot.
Tough spot.
It's a shame that you block the straight and the nut clubs, making the only realistic hand he can call with is sets on the turn (and usually only top set).
If the 7,8 or 9 paired, I'd be more likely to x/f than when the Q pairs, but it's hard to see what he can be bluffing with. I'd expect JT to shove on turn/check back on river, even low flushes to check back on river.
6 handed, I'd probably fold (and see what he does against other players when he goes to showdown), but you say this guy is quite aggro and it's blind vs blind 3 handed so I'd probably sigh call and make a note of what he shows up with.
I really like your turn play against someone who bets when checked to :)
If you're new to PLO, this happens a lot, having the supernuts, hitting a bad card and being in a horrible spot, especially OOP :)
yep, quite an ugly one.
but I'd go ahead and fold the river.
we block the Nflush, meaning the he shouldn't have many of FD combos, except maybe for Kc*cT6 or such.
assume that his range is boat heavy here and we don't have 25% needed. tho, its close one
Thx for your answers. From what I have seen so far at these limits, I doubt that he can be betting worse for value.
What would be your worst betting hand for value on the turn in vilain shoes ? Down to 77 ? Q9 ?
From those value hands, what would you bet/call ? Do you bet/call any naked set (without straight or flush draw), assuming that you have some implied when you hit ?
at these stakes, without reads and bvb i would expect a lot of ppl to bet any 2p+ ott as most ppl in your shoes are x-f >50% and rarely x-ring. id also expect most villains at these stakes to b/c with a set, assuming they have some implied and maybe bluff u if the flush comes in.
so i did some PJ-work...
ranges for villain (feel free to change them)
pre: 80% MINUS $3b12i
flop: 87+,T7+,cc,QT+:7+ MINUS JT:(cc,Q,87+),cc:(99,88,77),Acc:(87+)
now comes the interesting part. well start off being pessimistic....
if this is villains turn b/c range: 87+:cc,QT+:cc,77-99 MINUS JT, once we check and he bets, if he only vbets 77+ otr EV(call) = -$26.35 villain has 0 air in this example as he checks all his flushes.
leave the get-to river ranges unchanged and change river bet range to Kcc+ EV(call) = -$9.27
with these get-to river ranges for villain we need him to vbet J-high flush + before we make money on a call.
change his turn b/c range to 87+:cc,QT+:cc,77-99,(T6,65):(98,97,87,QT+) MINUS JT
and we have have a clear river call if villain shoves Kcc+ (if he still only vbets 77+ its a close fold).
in my experience when bvb even str8 forward tags tend to make moves in spots they never otherwise do, hero call in spots they otherwise never do etc which always makes me more likely to call in close spots when bvb.
i was pretty sure that the standard villain (of this type) shoves 2nd NF if not wider and a tiny amount of bluffs (2p+dbl gutter or a lower str8 no flush-redraw that he turns into a bluff)
but if u guys are sure that the avg LAG doesnt vbet that bvb here then we should fold.
Thx spassewr for the detailed analysis, this is very usefull.
I called (definitively for wrong reasons) and he showed Ts6cThKd ; he actually turned his second nuts OTT into a bluff river, as you suggested. I will try to focus on vilain betting range in these kind of spots to see whether they are betting Kcc or not here.
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