Straight completing turn: bet or check back?
Posted by DirtyD
Posted by
DirtyD
posted in
Mid Stakes
Straight completing turn: bet or check back?
Blinds: $3.00/$6.00 (5 Players)
BN: $716.77
SB: $578.40
BB: $994.73
UTG: $622.91
CO: $795.71 (Hero)
SB: $578.40
BB: $994.73
UTG: $622.91
CO: $795.71 (Hero)
Preflop
($9.00)
Hero is CO with
T
J
6
J
, , ,
Flop
($51.00)
4
9
J
, ,
Turn
($271.02)
4
9
J
8
,
Converter seems to have messed up some of the bet sizes, assume normal-ish bet sizes. Turn SPR is 2.9.
This is on Bovada, don't have an reads on villain.
Flop: do you ever flat here? Seems like we really want to raise to get in as much as possible now, but it does kind of turn our hand face up when the nuts are likely to change on the turn.
Turn: Bet or check? We hold a ten and no hearts and protection is pretty valuable with the pot this big, but the nut open ender completing is worrisome. If we make a big bet we're going to be priced in to call a shove.
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Set-up (from turn): stacks = 3, pot = 1
Options:
cb) check-back and realize X% of the pot
b-c) bet and either get a fold, get peeled or get big-johned on
cb: Equity on turn = 70% vs overall range
Say you realize 100% on pairing rivers (10/44), 20% on heart rivers (7/44), and 50% on las otras (27/44)[a]
=> (10/44)(1) + (7/44)(.2) + (24/44)(.5) = .53[b]
b-c:
Folding: all hands worse than T7+, sets, 2p+OESD, 2p+NFD will fold = 51.5%
Peeling: assume the hands above that are not QT will peel your 2/3psb = 30.25%
- these hands you have good equity great equity against and are pushing a lot of value
- around 68%
Shoving: 18.25% of the time you will get in your stack with 26% equity
Equation:
EV Folding (.515) + EV Peeling (.3025) + EV Shoving (.1825)
=> (1)(.515) + ((1+ 2/3 + 2/3)(.68)[c] - 2/3)(.3025) + ((1 + 3 + 3)(.26) -3)(.1825)
=> .58
.58 > .53
so maybe betting is better
BB range pre = 60%!$3b8o
BB range for flatting flop = (hh:4+,T8+,AJ+,J:T7+)!(Ah:hh:J+,99+)
[a] Just guessing here
[b] Seems a bit low, but in the ballpark I think
[c] I am assuming you will win your equity on bet-call turns
Thanks for the great reply. I am gonna use this as a model to analyze similar spots in future.
Like you said it is good that you have the T blocker.....
Say your hand didn't have the T blocker
- you are now getting:
47% folds
31% peels
22% shoves
assuming your equities remains the same (it will go down a bit in reality I think)
(1)(.47) + ((1+ 2/3 + 2/3)(.68) - 2/3)(.31) + ((1 + 3 + 3)(.26) -3)(.22)
= .5
* which is less than the estimated EV of checking back
Interesting. I've just reviewed some similar turn spots and come to similar conclusions. Villain's turn leading range should have a significant impact though.
He also leads some of his straights OTT i guess so that should make us bet even more
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