standard spot
Posted by grind4thai
Posted by
grind4thai
posted in
Low Stakes
standard spot
I think this is common spot, just wanna hear many opinions. Thanks
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On turn in this spot (and in HU) I would bet smaller ~ half pot as I don't want to scare opponent(s) when I have monster draw + over pair.
When opponents have semi-weak draw they fold my big bet on flop when action got checked to me, when I bet smaller there is still chance they call.
By that I am also making space for my easier call when turn is in favour of my opponent when he leads with FPB on turn - like in this case OR I induce his c/r whether he bets his Top2 with FD or he "bluffs" his KK with K hi FD. I would take my chances in both cases...
Played as played I am not sure is call profitable here, but I think your odds are still not that bad vs KQ.
I think this is one of spots where you are to weak to shove and to strong to fold.
I would call and see the river....
It is really close. If called hero have about 25% to make nuts. with implied odds. I think it is a call
Yeah, 3-bet full pot pre.
Opponent has a hand here obviously. Could be JJ or 78/8Q, but more likely is something like KQJ. You're always behind here so shoving is clearly out of the question. Calling would be somewhat standard maybe, but I'd actually consider folding. The reason being that you may not have as much implied odds as you think. I wouldn't expect you to have all that much implied odds on spades. Unless he has KQ with spades himself, but then he's also blocking a fair number of your outs. Given that you may have only ~23-25% equity you're not really getting a great price to call either.
Folding the turn may seem sick but I don't think I'd fault anyone for doing that. If there was no river betting then you'd have to fold the turn obviously, so if you call you basically expect to make up for a losing turn play on the river. Which is not unreasonable, but it doesn't look like a super exciting spot either.
some post flop details needed and seems like call, not shove OTT
This is a really easy call. We basically have 12 gin cards, 3 of which we can expect to get paid on every time (the offsuit Ks), as well as lower implied odds on all our flush outs. If we lose $47 32/44 of the time, win $94 (villain's bet and the pot) 9/44 of the time and get stacks in good 3/44 of the time (the offsuit Ks), we show roughly a $4 profit.
These assumptions are kinda crappy 'cas obv we expect one K to be blocked some of the time, but equally we certainly have SOME implied odds on the spades (or, if villain is 100% folding them, we have bluff outs on board pairs). What we can clearly see from these very simplistic assumptions is that there is money to be made calling. Depending on villain, this COULD be a shove (but we certainly don't have the info to make that play). However, this is absolutely never a fold.
Well, you lose ~€14 on the turn call and have €69 left on the river. So basically if you're shoving river you have to get called ~20% of the time to break even. But you only make a hand ~25% of the time, which means he has to call your shove ~80% of the time that you're shoving. I'm not so sure this is going to work out all that well for you.
With more money behind I could be convinced that it's a clear call, but with only 1/2 PSB left I don't think it's clear at all.
I've not included bluffing in this reasoning. You could certainly bluff board pairing cards, but I'm not convinced this is a hugely +EV play either, so I wouldn't really count on that to make the whole sequence +EV.
Yeah, I messed up the math this morning (I incorrectly took our winnings on the broadway shoves to include the money we put in on the turn and river). Whoops.
We actually make almost a $4 loss if we aren't getting action except when we make broadway. To break even, we'd need to get a $19 bet called w/ our flushes as well as shoves w/ broadway. I still think this is more than realistic and in fact stands to be somewhere on the low end given the ease with which we could extract curiosity calls, but it's certainly less clear than I originally thought.
Also, I wasn't stating that the ability to bluff would make this spot +EV, but that if we aren't able to extract any value with flushes, it stands to reason that villain is folding frequently enough that we could bluff some cards and show a profit doing so (for example, if we could get a $30 bet called on all non-pairing spades, we show a profit. If we can't get this called, we could bluff Ts and 9s for $30 which would only need to succeed just over 1/3 of the time to allow us to break even - not an unreasonable expectation if we can't get a $30 bet called on any spade).
Certainly closer than I originally thought, but I still struggle to believe that through some combination of value-bets and bluffs we can't show a profit calling this turn bet.
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