Weird flop spot in 3B pot
Posted by Ph33roX
Posted by
Ph33roX
posted in
Low Stakes
Weird flop spot in 3B pot
BN: JulyShort: $49.25
SB: thebestchamo: $39.50
BB: eugis T: $37.96
HJ: Ph33roX: $50
CO: NewmanAus: $55.58
SB: thebestchamo: $39.50
BB: eugis T: $37.96
HJ: Ph33roX: $50
CO: NewmanAus: $55.58
CO is an aggressive regular with a 12% 3bet. BB is a loose fish playing ~70% of hands preflop. Haven't seem him spew around postflop, and I expect him to have Ax when he's raising the flop.
Preflop
($0.75)
(5 Players)
Ph33roX was dealt
T
9
8
T
Ph33roX raises to $1.50, NewmanAus raises to $5.25, JulyShort folds, thebestchamo folds, eugis T calls $4.75, Ph33roX calls $3.75
Ph33roX raises to $1.50, NewmanAus raises to $5.25, JulyShort folds, thebestchamo folds, eugis T calls $4.75, Ph33roX calls $3.75
Flop
($16.00)
A
A
T
(3 Players)
eugis T checks,
Ph33roX checks,
NewmanAus bets $6.75,
eugis T raises to $13.50
Am I over-thinking this? Looks like a clear shove now, but at the table my senses told me I'm in trouble.
Loading 13 Comments...
Not enough full houses out there for me to fold and calling seems insane given visibility + size of the pot relative to stacks (+ we cannot induce bluffs after check/calling a bet and a raise). I'd just close my eyes and stick it in (not super excited 'cas we can be dead to AT and all Ax hands have outs, but I'm pretty freakin' sure I make money on this play so w/e).
I can see why you're concerned, since the min-raise from a fish is often the uber-nuts, but without a read that he always has AT here, I think you just gotta shove.
Look on the bright side - the both can't have AT!! As per the others; have to put the money in here...
CO is aggro and 3bets a lot so doesn't need to have a powerhouse...he can also rep a lot of AA here with the cbet. Fish could have anything...although I would agree that A spades is probably one of the cards he has...
flip a coin. its soooo close bc this is AT so often, but since we have 50%+eq vs a big part of his range i dont think i can fold. my gut would make my decision for me in-game.
i think we can assume bb is never bluffing.
equity needed if we know 3bettor is folding (doesnt have trips+): 37%.
equity vs rando Ax = 56%.
equity vs Ax within top 30% of hands: 52%
equity vs reasonable raising range like A w/ 2overs+ and AT : 44%
how often 3bettor has Ax: 27% of the time (assuming fish has Ax)
our eq vs 2 rando Ax:s = 36%
leaning towards a fold tho honestly readless, most fish will cc or c-r big with trips and this minraise is AT so often.
Kinda of off topic but why are we opening this marginal hand with such aggro regs behind us?
Think the open is fine with the weak player in the BB that we want to play hands with in position. Also we are not going to get 3b super light here since we are in the HJ and these are pretty good TT (no gaps and a suit)
Probably fine to get it in with the reads. If Newman is a good aggressive player than a lot of his ABBB hands are in his 3b range so that takes away from the AT or AKQJ type of hands that he can have in his range. Also he might bet fold A876 in this spot since we probably rarely take this line with <AKQJ. That being said if he bet calls all his Ax hands along with the BB we have barely enough equity to go with the hand (we have 36% equity and are putting in ~45 to win ~136). So if we think that newman can bet fold than probably super easy ship.
All that being said the min reraise looks so strong especially from a loose passive fish so might be able to go ahead and make the exploitable fold here.
Hey. Newman actually 3bet pre here =)
And yea, he could be bet folding for sure.
My bad, then I would say it's a fold given the opposite that I said above, I think that he has a lot more ATxx since they are in his 3b range along with ABBB that he will.. Consiering that the Weaker players line looks like a AT type of hand more often than an Ax hand. That being said in practice I probably always just stick it in, review the hand later and talk about how I am going to start to play the second nut hands better in the future.
I happen to know both of these players. I'm not sure if it would be fair to post details on their play so I wouldn't say much, but honestly this looks like a close fold against them.
Yea, I decided to hero-fold this in game. Newman also folded so no result here =/
I'm probably getting stacked here. As said above, not enough boats on board to make me fold at this point in the hand. Even weak passive players know to min raise otf wAKxx.
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